Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable pullback of around 20% after hitting a record high of $126,200 on October 6. This decline has sparked debates among market participants over whether the cryptocurrency is heading for a gradual recovery or preparing for a more aggressive price surge. Analysts suggest that this correction aligns with Bitcoin’s historical behavior, indicating that reaching new highs may take some time.
“Bitcoin Could Reach New ATH in 2-6 Months!”
Network economist Timothy Peterson highlights that this marks the third 20% retracement from an all-time high in 2024. Historically, such pullbacks have often been followed by a recovery period of 2–6 months before establishing a new record high.
Peterson’s AI-based simulations suggest that the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $140,000 by year-end is under 20%, the probability of closing above $108,000 stands at roughly 50%, and there is a 30% chance of finishing 2025 in negative territory.
Market Maturity: Slower but Steady Gains
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, recently adjusted the firm’s year-end Bitcoin target from $185,000 down to $120,000. According to Thorn, reduced volatility combined with increased institutional participation indicates that Bitcoin is entering a more mature market phase. Maintaining the $100,000 support level could keep the three-year bull trend structurally intact, but future gains are expected to unfold at a slower and steadier pace.
Crypto trader Titan offers a mixed outlook. While projecting a potential new high near $130,000 by year-end, Titan also warns that Bitcoin could fall below $70,000 during the first quarter of 2026. This analysis, based on the Wyckoff distribution framework, emphasizes caution for investors navigating the current market conditions.
Correction May Set the Stage for a New Rally
On the other hand, analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera argues that the current correction could pave the way for another parabolic phase. About 29.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently underwater—a level historically preceding major rallies. Long-term holders now control roughly 70% of the supply, while leverage in derivatives markets has largely been cleared. Rising institutional accumulation and growing stablecoin reserves suggest that liquidity is quietly rebuilding beneath the surface.
Perera concludes that, barring a major macroeconomic or geopolitical shock, Bitcoin’s current structure mirrors past pre-breakout conditions. The next 180 days could mark the beginning of a strong and sustained upward cycle, potentially setting the stage for significant gains.
*This content does not constitute investment advice.
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