Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin (BTC), historically known for its strong performance in November, may not deliver the same results this year. According to analysts from Bitfinex, global macroeconomic conditions and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious communication suggest that the market could enter a short-term consolidation phase rather than another explosive rally.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Fed Factor
In its latest market report, Bitfinex noted that while the overall macro backdrop points toward monetary easing, the mixed signals coming from the Federal Reserve have led to a cautious sentiment across markets. Analysts described this period as a “necessary stabilization phase” before volatility can return to the crypto market.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at uncertainty surrounding the possibility of another 25-basis-point rate cut in the December meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting now stands at 67.9%, down from levels above 90% seen over the past two months.
Rate cuts are generally viewed as bullish for crypto, as they encourage investors to move away from low-yield assets toward higher-risk alternatives. However, if the Fed signals a pause or a reversal in its policy, it could dampen market sentiment and trigger caution among traders.
Bitcoin Faces Consolidation Risk
Bitfinex analysts warned that investor confidence could weaken if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $116,000 mark. Long-term holders are reportedly showing signs of reduced conviction, and some are taking profits. “Unless the price breaks decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for the bulls,” the report stated.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $103,000, down nearly 3% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
November Is Usually Bullish – Will History Repeat Itself?
Despite the cautious outlook, several analysts believe Bitcoin could still follow its historical pattern of strong November gains. Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 41.78% increase in November.
Crypto analyst Dave Weisberger noted that Bitcoin’s “fundamentals remain strong,” adding that “market conditions are far more constructive compared to previous cycles. We are at the bottom of the range, not the top.”
Similarly, analyst Carl Runefelt stated that “November will turn green again for Bitcoin soon,” while trader AshCrypto reaffirmed his bullish stance.
However, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum since hitting an all-time high of $125,100 in early October. The sharp market crash on October 10, which wiped out nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions, continues to weigh on investor sentiment, making this November a test of patience rather than euphoria for many traders.
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