Emre Yumlu 
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin issued a significant warning during the Devconnect conference, highlighting a potential threat that could reshape the entire blockchain ecosystem. According to Buterin, the rapid progress in quantum computing may be enough to compromise the elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other networks within just a few years. For this reason, he argues that Ethereum must transition to quantum-resistant cryptography within the next four years.
A Potential Pre-2028 Risk: “Elliptic Curves Will Die”
Vitalik Buterin noted that some researchers believe quantum computers could achieve the capability to derive private keys from public keys by as early as 2028—a scenario that would undermine the security of digital wallets on a fundamental level. His remark that “elliptic curves will die” reflects the seriousness of the potential threat.
However, he also made it clear that this outcome is not guaranteed. Forecasts on Metaculus, for example, assign a roughly 20% probability to such a breakthrough occurring before 2030, with the median estimate pointing to 2040. Still, Buterin emphasized that even a modest risk warrants preparation, especially for a system responsible for securing billions of dollars in digital assets.
For Ethereum, he believes adopting hash-based, quantum-safe algorithms is the most prudent path forward.
Future Innovation Should Shift to Layer-2, Wallets, and Privacy
Vitalik Buterin also stressed that the core Ethereum protocol should no longer be the primary focal point for major upgrades. Instead, he argued that the next phase of progress should occur at the Layer-2 level, as well as in wallet infrastructure and privacy-focused technologies. According to him, this approach will give the ecosystem the flexibility and resilience it needs.
Why Quantum Computing Matters
Quantum computers operate differently from traditional machines, which rely on bits that represent 0 or 1. Quantum systems use qubits—units that can exist in multiple states at once—allowing them to process vast amounts of information simultaneously. This gives them the potential to solve certain cryptographic problems exponentially faster.
Major technology companies such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft are investing heavily in scalable quantum hardware. Some new quantum chips have already demonstrated the ability to perform computations that would take classical supercomputers trillions of years.
Buterin’s message is clear: the quantum threat may not be imminent, but the possibility alone is enough to justify urgent preparation. Transitioning Ethereum to quantum-resistant cryptography could become one of the most defining developments of the next few years.
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