Haciyev Reşit 
Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has entered one of the most critical periods in its history, following a sharp decline in its share price and MSCI’s upcoming review. According to JPMorgan, the company faces the risk of being removed from major global indexes an outcome that could have significant implications not only for Strategy itself, but also for the Bitcoin market and institutional capital flows.
What Is MSCI and Why Is It So Important?
MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) is one of the world’s largest index providers, classifying countries as Developed, Emerging, or Frontier Markets. It also creates major equity benchmarks such as:
- MSCI World
- MSCI Emerging Markets
- MSCI USA
These indexes are tracked by trillions of dollars in passive funds (ETFs, pension funds, mutual funds). When a company is removed from an MSCI index, these funds are obligated to eliminate it from their portfolios. This creates automatic, mechanical selling pressure that can reach billions of dollars. MSCI is now evaluating whether companies whose balance sheets consist largely of Bitcoin should remain in these indexes. Strategy is among the companies with the highest Bitcoin exposure, with more than 50% of its balance sheet in BTC.
Why Is the Risk So Large for Strategy?
According to JPMorgan, if Strategy is removed from MSCI indexes, it could trigger roughly $2.8 billion in forced passive outflows. If other index providers follow MSCI’s lead, the total could climb as high as $8.8 billion.
The impact would extend far beyond simple selling pressure:
- Liquidity could decline
- Share volatility could increase
- The company’s ability to borrow or raise capital could weaken
In summary, the biggest risk for Strategy is being classified as a “Bitcoin company” and consequently being excluded from traditional equity indexes, damaging its profile among institutional investors.
In recent days, heavy speculation surrounding MSCI’s potential decision has placed notable pressure on Strategy’s (MSTR) stock price. Concerns over possible removal have accelerated the existing selling trend in the shares.
Possible Impact on Bitcoin and the Market
In the short term, this situation could weaken overall market sentiment. Strategy is one of the largest institutional buyers of Bitcoin; therefore, downward pressure on the stock could affect investor psychology and cause a negative reaction in BTC’s price.
Short-term effects typically include:
- sharp sell-offs
- temporary liquidity tightening
However, the medium- and long-term picture may differ. If MSCI and other index providers exclude Bitcoin-heavy companies like Strategy, institutional investors may shift toward direct exposure through Bitcoin ETFs rather than indirect exposure via corporate stocks. This would push capital into a more transparent, regulated, and structurally stable channel for Bitcoin investment.
Overall Assessment
The possibility of Strategy being removed from MSCI signals that the company’s Bitcoin-centric business model has grown to a scale that now conflicts with traditional financial structures. The decision concerns not only a single company but all institutions holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, as well as Bitcoin’s evolving position within the global financial system.
The result set to be announced on January 15 may influence a wide range of factors, from passive fund flows to institutional risk appetite. Therefore, this review is seen as a critical turning point for both Bitcoin’s institutional integration and the future classification of digital-asset-heavy corporate balance sheets.
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