Haciyev Reşit 
Patience in the cryptocurrency markets is wearing thin. While Bitcoin (BTC) continues to move on its own path, altcoins stubbornly lag behind—prompting investors to ask a worrying question: “Is the legendary altcoin season now just a myth?” According to experts, the answer is a clear “No.” However, the timeline points to a date further out than many expected. For months, crypto investors have been watching the same scenario unfold: Bitcoin rises or moves sideways, while altcoins in portfolios fail to deliver the long-awaited breakout.
Concerns are growing that the eras of massive 5,000% rallies seen in 2017 and 2021 are over. Yet leading macro strategists and analysts argue that the altcoin season is not dead—it has merely been delayed due to elongated business cycles. It appears that the familiar four-year cycle is giving way to a longer and more painful five-year structure.
Raoul Pal Warns: “Forget the Old Cycle Playbook”
Global Macro Investor and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal says the biggest mistake investors are making is assuming the market will follow the traditional four-year halving cycle exactly as before. According to Pal, the extension of debt maturities between 2021 and 2022 quietly stretched the cycle.
This macroeconomic shift delayed the expected liquidity explosion often referred to in crypto as the “Banana Zone,” the vertical phase where gains accelerate dramatically. Pal argues that this is not a collapse, but simply an extension of the cycle.
The Key Indicator: The ISM Index
Pal, along with another prominent strategist, Tom Lee, emphasizes that investors should focus less on price action and more on the ISM Manufacturing Index. Historical data tells a clear story: Whenever the ISM Index rises above 50, Bitcoin—and subsequently Ethereum and altcoins—tends to enter massive rallies.
At present, the market is waiting for this macro indicator to fully mature. Providing a timeline for the altcoin season, Raoul Pal stated:
“Our best estimate is that the rally will continue into late 2026, likely peaking around Q2 2026. That’s when the liquidity cycle reaches its maximum.”
What Does Technical Analysis Say? “The Calm Before 2020”
Not only macro strategists but also technical analysts are pointing to a similar outlook. Popular crypto analyst Ash Crypto, using a chart that excludes the top 10 coins by market cap (similar to TOTAL3), identified a striking resemblance. According to the chart, altcoins are currently mirroring the market structure seen before the 2020 bull run.
Prices are holding above a strong long-term support level. However, Ash Crypto cautions investors:
- Shakeout First: Real rallies never start easily. Sharp pullbacks and liquidations usually occur first to flush out weak hands.
- The End of QT: The major rally is expected to begin once the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) ends Quantitative Tightening (QT). When liquidity taps reopen, risk appetite should rise.
If this model plays out again, technical data—like Pal’s macro outlook—also points to 2026.
Current Situation: What Does the Altcoin Season Index Tell Us?
Putting projections aside, current data confirms that winter is not over yet. The Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 37.
For context:
- Readings above 75 indicate an “Altcoin Season.”
- Readings below 25 signal a “Bitcoin Season.”
Meaning: Bitcoin dominance remains strong, and the market is still far from a true altcoin rally.
Conclusion
In summary, based on expert opinions and technical data, the altcoin season is not dead—it has simply been extended. Claims that crypto has entered a long-term stagnation phase are challenged by projections pointing toward 2026. For investors, the current strategy appears to be preserving both patience and liquidity, while closely monitoring ISM data and Federal Reserve monetary policy rather than short-term price fluctuations.
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