Emre Yumlu 
The question of when the next “altcoin season” will begin continues to dominate discussions in the crypto market. While many investors are waiting for a broad-based rally similar to previous cycles, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offers a fundamentally different interpretation. According to Hayes, the idea that altcoin season has not yet arrived is misleading — because, in his view, it never actually ended.
Rethinking the Concept of Altcoin Season
Speaking during a recent podcast appearance, Hayes argued that there are always altcoins outperforming the market at any given time. He suggests that investors who believe altcoin season has not occurred are likely those who failed to hold the assets that appreciated the most. This perspective challenges the widely held belief that altcoin season must follow a predictable, market-wide pattern.
Hayes emphasizes that many traders are still anchored to past cycles, expecting history to repeat itself in the same way. However, the crypto market has evolved significantly, and relying too heavily on historical playbooks may lead to missed opportunities.
The Risk of Looking Backward
One of Hayes’ central points is that investors often assume the next altcoin rally will feature the same projects and narratives as the last one. This mindset, he warns, can be counterproductive. Markets reward innovation and new trends, not familiarity. According to Hayes, each cycle introduces fresh themes, and successful traders are those who adapt rather than cling to outdated assumptions.
Standout Performers in the Current Cycle
To support his argument, Hayes highlights specific examples from the current market cycle. He points to Hyperliquid as one of the strongest stories so far, noting its rise from low single-digit prices to around $60. Such performance, he argues, demonstrates that meaningful altcoin rallies have already taken place — just not across the entire market.
Hayes also references Solana as another example. After collapsing to near $7 during the 2022 downturn, Solana rebounded sharply, climbing close to $300 earlier this year. These moves, in his view, are clear evidence that capital has rotated into select altcoins, even if a broad-based rally has not materialized.
A Divided Industry Perspective
Not everyone shares Hayes’ outlook. Some market participants believe the next altcoin season will be driven primarily by established cryptocurrencies, particularly those linked to exchange-traded fund products or expected regulatory approvals. Others continue to expect a traditional sequence, with Bitcoin leading the way before capital flows into Ether and smaller altcoins.
A More Selective Market Environment
Overall, the current market appears less about indiscriminate rallies and more about selective outperformance. Hayes’ message is clear: altcoin season is not a single event but an ongoing process. The key difference lies in identifying which projects truly define each cycle’s winners.
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