Emre Yumlu 
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself at a decisive crossroads. Annual price data suggests that without a late-stage recovery, Bitcoin may finish the year in negative territory. If this scenario materializes, it would mark a historic deviation from previous post-halving cycles.
The Threshold Bitcoin Must Reclaim
For Bitcoin to end 2025 with a positive annual performance, the price must climb above its opening level of approximately $93,374. Achieving this would require a short-term gain of around 6.24%. Failure to reach that threshold would result in Bitcoin closing the year with a red annual candle—something that has never occurred in the post-halving period.
Market observers emphasize that the window for such a rebound is narrowing rapidly. With only a handful of days remaining in the year, the probability of a decisive move higher is diminishing, raising the likelihood that 2025 could become the first negative post-halving year on record.
Sharp Pullback From Record Highs
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in October, surging above $125,000. However, the rally was short-lived. A severe market-wide sell-off followed just days later, triggering heavy liquidation across the crypto sector. As a result, Bitcoin retraced nearly 30% from its peak, finding a local bottom near $80,000 in November.
This abrupt reversal reignited debate over whether the long-standing bull market has ended or if the move represents a deeper correction within a broader uptrend.
Bitcoin Technical Structure Shows Signs of Weakness
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been trading below its 365-day moving average since November. This level had previously acted as a key support throughout the structural uptrend that began in 2023. Sustained trading below this indicator is widely interpreted as a sign of weakening momentum and declining trend strength.
Interest Rate Uncertainty Adds Pressure
Macroeconomic factors are also influencing market sentiment. The US Federal Reserve implemented three 25-basis-point rate cuts throughout 2025. However, guidance following the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting failed to provide clarity on the path forward.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted that there is “no risk-free path” for monetary policy, leaving markets uncertain about near-term decisions. According to CME FedWatch data, only 18.8% of participants currently expect an additional rate cut at the January meeting.
Outlook
With technical indicators softening and macro uncertainty persisting, Bitcoin’s year-end performance remains highly uncertain. Whether BTC can avoid making history with its first negative post-halving annual close will depend on whether buyers can regain control in the final days of 2025.
This content is not investment advice.
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