Haciyev Reşit 
As a leadership change at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) approaches, expectations in the markets about who will take over in the new term are becoming increasingly clear. With the end of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term drawing near, discussions about potential shifts in monetary policy are also intensifying. In this process, whom President Donald Trump will choose to replace Powell is being closely watched—not only for the U.S. economy but also for global financial markets.
Powell’s Term Nears Its End
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair is set to end in May, signaling the potential start of a new era in U.S. monetary policy. President Donald Trump’s decision on Powell’s successor has become a major source of uncertainty in both financial and political circles. Since the new chair’s approach to monetary policy could shape everything from interest rate decisions to balance sheet management, investors are following developments closely.
According to pricing in prediction markets, Trump is expected to announce his choice for the next Fed Chair in January. This expectation is already influencing assets sensitive to interest rate policy, including equities, bonds, and crypto assets, as markets begin to price in possible scenarios.
Leading Names in Prediction Markets
Probabilities reflected on prediction platforms reveal which candidates markets currently view as most likely. The top two contenders are:
- Kevin Hassett: 42%
- Kevin Warsh: 32%
These two names stand out clearly, while other candidates are priced as follows:
- Christopher Waller: 15%
- Rick Rieder: 4%
- Scott Bessent: 2%
- Michelle Bowman: 2%
- Judy Shelton: 2%
This distribution shows that while there is no full consensus yet, market expectations are clustering around a few key figures.
Trump’s Sharp Messages to Powell
Donald Trump has recently intensified his criticism of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In remarks made not long ago, Trump stated that the possibility of removing Powell from office remains on the table. These comments have reignited debates over the Fed’s independence while also accelerating expectations around who the next chair will be.
Prediction markets are also pricing in expectations for the January interest rate decision. Current probabilities are as follows:
- 50 basis points or more rate cut: 1%
- 25 basis points rate cut: 11%
- No change in rates: 89%
This outlook suggests that markets do not expect aggressive rate cuts in the short term and anticipate that the Fed will largely maintain its current stance.
Assessment
As 2026 approaches, the intensifying race for the Fed Chair position marks a critical period for global markets. The individual chosen by Donald Trump could have far-reaching implications not only for U.S. monetary policy, but also for the dollar, equities, bond markets, and crypto assets. While prediction markets currently point to Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as the frontrunners, the final decision—and its market impact—will continue to be closely monitored.
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