Emre Yumlu 
Investment firm VanEck has released a detailed long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin that goes beyond short-term price forecasts. According to their research, Bitcoin could evolve from a speculative digital asset into a strategic medium of exchange and reserve store of value by 2050, resulting in a dramatic price appreciation.
Bitcoin’s Potential Role in Global Trade
VanEck’s base case scenario envisions Bitcoin becoming deeply integrated into the global financial system over the next 25 years. Under this model, Bitcoin could settle between 5% and 10% of international trade, as well as about 5% of domestic trade worldwide by 2050. If this level of adoption is achieved, it would place Bitcoin alongside some of today’s major currencies in terms of usage for settling transactions.
This projected role reflects not only Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance in sanctioned countries that already use it for cross-border transactions, but also the possibility of broader adoption if global trade patterns and monetary preferences evolve.
Central Bank Reserves and Strategic Allocation
Another key component of VanEck’s outlook is the role of Bitcoin in sovereign asset portfolios. In the base case, analysts predict that central banks could allocate around 2.5% of their total reserves to Bitcoin by 2050. Holding Bitcoin as part of official reserves would mark a significant shift from the current dominance of traditional reserve currencies, and could contribute to Bitcoin’s acceptance as a hedge against currency debasement.
If realized, this allocation would help elevate Bitcoin’s share of all global financial assets to roughly 1.66%, further reinforcing its position as a mainstream store of value.
Bitcoin Price Targets and Growth Scenarios
VanEck’s report outlines three distinct price trajectories based on different adoption and macroeconomic outcomes:
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Bear Scenario: A modest growth environment with Bitcoin reaching around $130,000 by 2050, assuming a 2% compound annual growth rate.
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Base Scenario: The central forecast sees Bitcoin reaching approximately $2.9 million per coin, driven by adoption in global trade and reserve portfolios at a 15% annualized growth rate.
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Bull Scenario: Under an optimistic outlook where Bitcoin captures a greater share of trade and reserves, the price could soar toward $52.4 million with a 29% compound annual growth rate.
The base forecast, while substantial, is more conservative than earlier VanEck projections that assumed higher growth rates.
Comparison With Traditional Reserve Currencies
To put Bitcoin’s potential market share in context, data from the global payments network SWIFT shows that the US dollar continued to dominate global trade settlements as of late 2025, accounting for 47.8% of activity, followed by the euro at 22.8% and the British pound at 7.4%.
If Bitcoin were to capture 5% to 10% of such trade settlement activity, it would be roughly on par with the British pound’s current role. This comparison highlights how meaningful even a relatively small slice of global trade adoption could be for Bitcoin’s valuation.
Structural Drivers Behind the Forecast of Bitcoin
VanEck’s analysts pinpoint global liquidity growth, currency debasement concerns, and structural limitations of sovereign debt systems as key long-term value drivers for Bitcoin. They emphasize that Bitcoin, with its capped supply and decentralized monetary policy, has the potential to act as a hedge against adverse monetary outcomes.
While marketplace dynamics and short-term price action remain tied to liquidity cycles and leverage, the firm’s long-term framework suggests that Bitcoin’s convergence with trade and reserve adoption could shape its fundamental value over decades.
VanEck’s projection is not a prediction of guaranteed outcomes but rather an illustration of how Bitcoin’s role could evolve under specific adoption and macroeconomic conditions. As with all long-term forecasts, actual results may vary based on technology development, regulatory environments, and broader economic trends.
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