Yeliz Akmaca 
The recent price drop in Lighter token may initially look like a routine market cooldown. But the developments on January 12 and 13 suggest otherwise. Timing, liquidity and market expectations broke down simultaneously, opening a window that exposed deeper structural weakness.
As the week began, LIT repeatedly tested key support levels. This wasn’t just scattered profit-taking. The price action pointed to something more persistent than a short-lived panic.
The Post-Airdrop Balance Never Fully Formed
The real fracture appeared after the airdrop. The new supply dynamics never truly settled. A large portion of distributed tokens failed to stay parked on-chain for long, leaving the order book thin even during upward attempts.
Selling didn’t arrive in one wave. It came in intervals, steady enough to erode buyer confidence. That pattern explains why every rebound attempt faded quickly.
January 12 Delivered a Quiet Warning
Market commentary on January 12 shared a common note: momentum was weakening and volume wasn’t supporting price. It wasn’t an aggressive call, but it mattered. At the time, price still looked technically intact, which made the risk easier to ignore.
That disconnect created a fragile setup. Buyers stepped back. Sellers waited. The imbalance was already there.
Buyback Optimism Failed to Stick
In early January, Lighter announced a treasury buyback program directing 50% of protocol fees toward token repurchases. The move briefly lifted sentiment and pushed LIT toward the 2.89 dollar level.
Yet the recovery leaned heavily on large wallets rather than broad demand. On-chain data showed buying concentrated among a small group of whale addresses, while early investors continued selling into strength. The move never spread across the market.
At the same time, sector-wide capital rotation added pressure. The buyback was priced in, but it failed to evolve into a lasting narrative.
January 13 Was the Outcome, Not the Trigger
By January 13, the structure was already compromised. Support levels held visually, but real buyers weren’t defending them. A modest sell wave was enough to set off a chain reaction.
Thin order books, accumulated leverage and a lack of near-term catalysts converged. Liquidations followed, stops were hit and price moved down fast. The panic came after the move, not before it.
Why This Matters
What happened to Lighter isn’t unique. It highlights how quickly markets punish gaps between supply management and expectation control, especially in early-stage projects.
Product development may continue, but price doesn’t trade on potential alone. When timing is vague, liquidity is shallow and narrative runs ahead of structure, patience disappears.
What Comes Next
In the short term, the key question is whether selling pressure truly fades. Without sustained calm in on-chain activity, forming a healthy base will be difficult.
A clearly timed, measurable update from the team could still shift sentiment quickly. Until then, the market appears to have placed Lighter in a temporary holding pattern.
This move looks less like a sudden collapse and more like delayed price discovery. Whether that process has finished remains unclear — and for now, uncertainty is exactly what the market is pricing in.
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