Emre Yumlu 
Global investment management firm VanEck has published its outlook for the first quarter of 2026, highlighting a potential improvement in investor risk appetite. According to the report, increased clarity around fiscal and monetary policy may create a more supportive environment for investors to take bolder positions after years of heightened uncertainty.
VanEck emphasizes that as markets enter 2026, predictability is beginning to outweigh ambiguity. This shift is seen as a constructive development, particularly for assets that tend to benefit from stronger risk sentiment.
Greater Visibility on Fiscal and Monetary Policy
One of the key themes in VanEck’s outlook is the gradual stabilization of the US fiscal landscape. Although budget deficits remain elevated, their ratio to GDP has declined from the extreme levels seen during the pandemic period. This trend is contributing to a more balanced long-term interest rate environment.
According to the firm, improving fiscal discipline reduces the likelihood of sudden market shocks and allows investors to plan with a clearer medium-term perspective. At the same time, a more transparent monetary policy framework is helping markets better assess future conditions, reinforcing confidence across asset classes.
A Cautious but Constructive View on Bitcoin
VanEck adopts a measured stance when addressing Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The report notes that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, long used as a reference point by investors, showed signs of breaking down in 2025. As a result, short-term signals have become less reliable, prompting a more cautious outlook over the next three to six months.
That said, the firm acknowledges differing views internally, with some executives maintaining a more optimistic perspective on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. This divergence reflects the evolving nature of crypto market dynamics as the asset class matures.
Risk Assets Poised to Benefit
The expectation of a “risk-on” environment is generally supportive for technology stocks, artificial intelligence-related investments, and digital assets. VanEck points out that Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from traditional markets such as equities and gold suggests it is increasingly trading on its own fundamentals.
Market observers note that price advances occurring in relatively low-leverage conditions, combined with signs of recovery from oversold levels, may provide a healthier foundation for risk assets moving into 2026.
A Clearer Path for the First Half of 2026
Following the volatility seen toward the end of 2025, analysts believe the market direction for the first half of 2026 has become more defined. With US midterm elections approaching, expectations of fiscal support and favorable regulatory developments could further strengthen the macro backdrop.
Under these conditions, VanEck suggests that Bitcoin and the wider crypto market may be well positioned to regain momentum, provided broader economic stability continues to improve.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.