Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin climbed above the $95,000 mark on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in nearly two months. While global market appetite remains strong, the picture in the U.S. is not quite as clear. Despite the price surge, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained in negative territory, suggesting that American investors are maintaining a cautious stance.
The timing of this price movement is particularly noteworthy. Signs of cooling inflation and renewed political uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve have opened up space for risk assets. However, this momentum lacks full backing from U.S.-based demand.
Why Is U.S. Demand Lagging?
The Coinbase Premium Index compares the price of Bitcoin on Nasdaq-listed Coinbase with the price on offshore-based Binance. The fact that the index is trending negative indicates that Bitcoin is trading at a discount on Coinbase compared to the global average. In short, this suggests that buying appetite in the U.S. remains weak, and sell-side pressure may even be dominant.
The divergence is clearly visible on the charts. Data shows that the Coinbase Premium peaked alongside the price in October but flipped negative in early November. Remaining in the red ever since is the most concrete evidence that U.S. investors are choosing to watch from the sidelines rather than join the rally.
According to Singapore-based Phemex, a negative premium is often read as an early signal of potential capital outflows from the U.S. market. Historically, the situation was the exact opposite; Bitcoin typically saw sharp and sustained rallies when U.S. demand was strong, especially following the pro-regulatory shifts after the November 2024 presidential elections.
Eyes on the Clarity Act
Regulatory uncertainty is the primary driver behind the “wait-and-see” mode adopted by U.S. investors. Critical Senate discussions for the Clarity Act—aimed at creating a clear legal framework for the crypto market—have been pushed to the last week of January. Efforts to secure bipartisan support are slowing the process and prolonging the uncertainty.
Some analysts argue that if the act passes, U.S. demand could kick in rapidly, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward a new all-time high. However, the lack of a clear timeline suggests that the current rally is primarily being driven by non-U.S. investors.
Liquidations Fuel the Surge
Derivatives markets played a major role in the sudden price spike. According to Coinglass data, over $688 million in crypto derivative positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with approximately $603 million coming from short positions. The largest single liquidation was a $12.9 million ETHUSDT position on Binance.
This data reveals how aggressively investors were betting on a downward scenario ahead of the inflation data and how quickly the market reversed those expectations. Roughly 122,000 traders lost their positions during this move.
Market Outlook
While Bitcoin rose over 4% to surpass $95,000, Ether gained over 7% to reach around $3,330. Major tokens like Solana, Cardano, and BNB saw gains of up to 9%. This trend aligns with broader global risk appetite, with Asian markets hitting new peaks and silver climbing above $90 per ounce.
While the current surge reflects a global shift toward non-sovereign assets, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain until U.S. demand clearly enters the fray. News regarding the Clarity Act in the coming days will likely determine the next direction for the market.
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