Emre Yumlu 
As Bitcoin moves further away from its most recent peak, a growing number of analysts are questioning whether the market has already seen its cycle high. According to prominent crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin may have topped in 2025, with 2026 shaping up to be a consolidation phase rather than the start of a new, powerful bull run.
A Post-Halving Peak That Looked Different
Cowen argues that Bitcoin reached its cyclical high in the final quarter of 2025, aligning with historical post-halving behavior. However, this cycle diverged sharply from previous peaks. Unlike 2017 and 2021, when euphoric retail participation dominated market sentiment, the latest high formed under far more subdued conditions.
Retail engagement, speculative breadth, and social activity failed to reach extreme levels despite Bitcoin setting new highs. Cowen notes that this structure closely resembles the market environment seen in mid-2019, when Bitcoin rallied significantly without triggering widespread speculative mania.
Choppy Pullbacks Instead of a Sharp Collapse
One key takeaway from Cowen’s analysis is that peaks driven by market apathy do not necessarily lead to deep or prolonged bear markets. In 2019, Bitcoin’s decline was relatively contained compared to the extended drawdowns that followed earlier euphoric tops.
That pattern may repeat. Rather than a single, decisive sell-off, Cowen expects uneven price action characterized by repeated countertrend rallies. Such conditions often create confusion for investors, as short-term recoveries can appear convincing without marking a true trend reversal.
Macroeconomic Conditions Limit Upside Potential
Beyond market structure, Cowen highlights the broader macroeconomic backdrop as a limiting factor for Bitcoin’s upside. While global growth is showing signs of slowing, the slowdown has not been severe enough to prompt aggressive liquidity expansion.
Without a meaningful increase in global liquidity, risk assets like Bitcoin may struggle to attract sustained inflows. As a result, the overall risk-reward balance continues to favor capital preservation rather than aggressive accumulation.
Structural Reset Still Needed
Cowen emphasizes that his assessment is not a short-term price forecast. He acknowledges that rallies can and likely will occur, and certain assets may outperform along the way. However, until liquidity conditions improve, investor participation broadens, and on-chain metrics reset, Bitcoin’s structural upside remains constrained.
Taken together, the outlook suggests that 2026 is more likely to be a period of digestion and consolidation than a year defined by new all-time highs.
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