Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin investors have long expected that strong rallies in precious metals would eventually trigger a capital rotation into crypto markets. However, several analysts argue that this assumption may be premature. Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to equities suggests the current market cycle may still be working against risk assets.
The Rotation Narrative May Be Misleading
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has cautioned that Bitcoin could continue to weaken relative to the stock market in the near term. According to Cowen, the idea that soaring gold and silver prices will automatically push investors toward Bitcoin oversimplifies how capital flows actually behave.
He argues that expectations of a rapid and aggressive shift from precious metals into crypto are overly optimistic, particularly while macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated. In his view, Bitcoin’s relative weakness could persist longer than many market participants expect.
Gold and Silver Hit Records as Bitcoin Slips
Gold and silver have recently surged to new all-time highs. Gold moved above $5,608, while silver climbed past $121. This rally has been fueled by strong demand from China and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, which has fallen to its weakest level in four years.
Some major financial institutions have even suggested that silver could rise toward $150 in the coming months if current trends continue.
Bitcoin, however, has not shared in this momentum. The asset is trading around $82,859, down nearly 8% over the past seven days. Market sentiment has deteriorated alongside price action, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index firmly in “extreme fear” territory—an indication that investors remain highly cautious.
Analysts Are Divided on What Comes Next
Despite the bearish tone, not all analysts share Cowen’s outlook. Some point to historical patterns showing that Bitcoin often lags gold during periods of macro stress. On average, Bitcoin market bottoms have formed roughly 14 months after gold demonstrates relative strength.
Based on this framework, there is speculation that Bitcoin could be approaching a local bottom within the next 40 days, assuming historical relationships remain intact.
A Long-Term Asymmetry Emerging?
From a longer-term perspective, some researchers argue that Bitcoin is currently trading at a significant discount relative to gold. Such disparities are rare and can create asymmetric opportunities if capital flows begin to shift.
If sentiment improves and risk appetite returns, some analysts believe early 2026 could mark a meaningful inflection point for Bitcoin.
In summary, short-term conditions suggest continued caution, but longer-term cycle dynamics indicate that Bitcoin’s story may be far from over.
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