Emre Yumlu 
The recent divergence between gold and Bitcoin has raised important questions among investors. While confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains strong, its short-term performance has lagged noticeably behind gold. This gap highlights how investor behavior shifts during periods of heightened uncertainty and how broader macroeconomic forces shape asset preferences.
Uncertainty Pushes Investors Toward Traditional Safe Havens
According to economist Dr. Bob Murphy, the main driver behind gold’s outperformance is the growing sense of uncertainty across global markets. Rising geopolitical tensions, ongoing conflicts, and fragile economic conditions have made investors more cautious. In such an environment, many prefer assets with a long-established track record rather than newer, technology-driven alternatives.
Murphy links gold’s strong performance over the past year to the increasing seriousness with which markets are treating extreme crisis scenarios. When the future feels unpredictable, investors tend to value resilience proven over centuries rather than innovation alone.
Why Bitcoin and Gold Diverge During Crises
Under normal conditions, Bitcoin and gold often respond similarly to macroeconomic developments. Both are commonly viewed through the lens of “sound money,” especially during periods of monetary expansion or expectations of increased liquidity. In these scenarios, demand for both assets typically rises.
However, Murphy points out that this correlation weakens during moments of genuine uncertainty. When markets struggle to assess near-term risks and outcomes, investor priorities shift. In such cases, physical assets tend to take precedence over digital ones. Gold’s tangible nature and its historical role as a store of value make it a preferred option when confidence in systems and institutions is under pressure.
Central Banks and Shifting Global Power Dynamics
Gold’s recent strength is not driven solely by individual investors. Central bank activity plays a significant role as well. Murphy highlights that countries such as China and Russia have been aggressively increasing their gold reserves. These moves suggest a broader reassessment of the global financial order.
As confidence in a dollar-centric system weakens and the world moves toward a more multipolar structure, central banks are increasingly diversifying away from U.S. dollar assets. Physical gold has re-emerged as a strategic reserve, valued for its independence from any single nation’s monetary policy.
Short-Term Reality, Long-Term Potential
Murphy does not dismiss Bitcoin’s future. He acknowledges its technological advantages and growing usability. However, he emphasizes that current market psychology still favors gold in times of stress.
This does not undermine Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, but it does help explain why, for now, gold continues to lead. Bitcoin may eventually align more closely with gold’s performance—but only when uncertainty gives way to renewed confidence and risk appetite returns.
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