Yeliz Akmaca 
As of February 2026, Bitcoin is declining due to Fed-driven macro pressure, the realization of post-Trump regulatory expectations, and a sharp rise in put demand in the options market. A strong U.S. dollar and delayed rate cuts have weakened risk appetite, while derivatives positioning shows that downside scenarios are now being priced seriously.
Reasons Behind Bitcoin’s Decline
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Macro pressure: The Fed pushing rate cut expectations into the summer and a resilient dollar index have accelerated capital outflows from risk assets. In this environment, Bitcoin has struggled to find support.
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Expectation realization: Optimism around crypto regulation following Donald Trump’s election victory had already been priced in. With no fresh or concrete catalysts, investors shifted toward profit-taking.
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Derivatives market signal: A sharp increase in put demand in the options market indicates that investors are actively positioning for downside scenarios.
Macro Winds Have Turned Against Risk Assets
Entering February, global risk sentiment tightened noticeably. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strong dollar failed to provide a supportive backdrop for crypto assets. On the Fed side, postponed rate cut expectations limited upside appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.
At this stage, selling pressure does not appear panic-driven. Instead, position reduction and a wait-and-see approach dominate amid heightened uncertainty.
Options Market Is Pricing the Downside Scenario
While the pullback in the spot market appears measured, the clearest signal is emerging from derivatives. As Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level, investors increasingly turned to hedging downside risks.
Bitcoin put options with a $75,000 strike price quickly became among the most actively traded contracts. According to Deribit data, open interest at this level has reached $1.159 billion. At the same time, open interest in $100,000 call options stands at $1.168 billion. This near balance reflects a market that remains cautious rather than decisively directional.
Market observer GravitySucks noted a sharp surge in put buying during the period when BTC’s spot price fell rapidly from $88,000 to $75,000. These moves suggest pre-planned strategies rather than reactive trades.
Post-Trump Optimism Fades as a New Equilibrium Forms
The bullish narrative that followed Trump’s election victory had largely been reflected in prices. Bitcoin’s failure to hold above the $120,000 level signaled a weakening of that expectation. The subsequent decline appears to be a textbook case of expectation realization.
Delays in crypto market structure legislation further weighed on sentiment. The heavy put demand now visible in the options market clearly shows that investors are no longer focused solely on upside scenarios.
Bitcoin remains a strong asset over the long term. In the short term, however, the market is less concerned with how high prices can go and more focused on which support levels may be tested next.
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