Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin has shown modest recovery attempts after a sharp pullback, yet the broader market outlook remains fragile. Despite short-term price rebounds, structural and narrative-based challenges continue to limit upside momentum. According to assessments from crypto-focused financial firm Galaxy Digital, the market currently lacks strong drivers capable of sustaining a meaningful rally.
Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, emphasizes that downside risks are still firmly in play. In his view, Bitcoin’s recent movements do not yet reflect a decisive shift in market sentiment, particularly as macro and crypto-specific catalysts remain scarce.
Galaxy Digital: Realized Price Emerges as a Key Level
One of the most critical metrics highlighted by Galaxy Digital is Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation. This level currently sits near $56,000. Thorn notes that Bitcoin may first revisit the $70,000 supply gap, after which a test of the realized price becomes increasingly plausible if bearish conditions persist.
A major headwind, according to Galaxy, is Bitcoin’s failure to trade in tandem with traditional hard assets like gold and silver. This disconnect weakens the “debasement hedge” narrative that has historically supported Bitcoin during periods of macro uncertainty, placing additional pressure on price expectations.
Technical Structure: Long-Term Averages in Focus
Although Bitcoin recently gained around 3% to trade just below $78,500, it remains roughly 39% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in early October. Galaxy Digital places particular importance on long-term moving averages when evaluating market cycles.
Thorn points out that Bitcoin lost support at its 50-week moving average in November. Meanwhile, the 200-week moving average, currently near $58,000, has historically coincided with cycle bottoms. In prior market downturns, these levels have often served as strong accumulation zones for long-term investors.
Long-Term Holder Behavior Suggests a Potential Base
On-chain data analyzed by Galaxy Digital indicates limited evidence of aggressive accumulation by large holders so far. This suggests that some investors may be waiting for lower prices before re-entering the market.
However, there is a notable shift: long-term holder profit-taking has slowed significantly. While some holders may still be inclined to sell into strength, the reduction in realized profits historically aligns with markets approaching a local or cyclical bottom.
Regulatory Developments Unlikely to Boost Bitcoin Near-Term
While US lawmakers continue to debate a crypto market structure bill, Galaxy Digital believes its short-term impact on Bitcoin may be limited. Even if passed, Thorn argues that regulatory clarity is more likely to benefit altcoins rather than Bitcoin itself.
Overall, Galaxy’s assessment suggests that Bitcoin could remain volatile in the near term, but is gradually approaching levels that have historically marked long-term opportunity zones.
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