Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin latest downturn is forcing traders to reassess near-term expectations. During early Asian trading on Thursday, Bitcoin briefly slipped below $72,000, marking its lowest level in nearly 16 months. While prices have since stabilized modestly, prediction markets suggest that sentiment for February has shifted decisively toward defense rather than recovery.
Data from Polymarket, where traders risk real capital on price outcomes, reveals a market focused on holding key support levels instead of chasing new highs.
February Pricing: Defending the Floor
Polymarket’s February Bitcoin price contracts point to $70,000 as the critical battleground. With 24 days remaining in the month, contracts tied to the $70,000 level alone have attracted nearly $1.78 million in volume. The probability assigned to this level has jumped to 74%, rising sharply over recent sessions and making it the most actively traded outcome.
Upside expectations have weakened significantly. The $85,000 target has fallen to a 29% probability, while $90,000 and $95,000 are priced at just 12% and 7%, respectively. On the downside, traders appear cautious but not alarmist. The $65,000 contract sits at 39%, and $60,000 holds at 19%, while probabilities of a breakdown below $55,000 remain minimal.
Taken together, the implied trading range for February is roughly $65,000 to $85,000, with $70,000 emerging as the most likely settlement point.
Longer-Term View: Optimism Under Pressure
Polymarket’s annual contract for 2026 presents a more balanced but increasingly cautious outlook. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026 stands at 55%, though this figure has dropped notably from recent highs. Expectations for $110,000 have also declined to 42%.
Interestingly, the most heavily traded outcome is not an upside target but downside protection. The $65,000 contract has surged to an 83% probability, supported by more than $1 million in volume. Higher price targets fade quickly, with probabilities falling sharply above $130,000.
Market Forces Behind the Decline
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $73,199, down 16% year-to-date and approximately 40% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The selloff has been driven by a combination of rising geopolitical tensions, unresolved economic data issues following last year’s extended government shutdown, and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve leadership, which has strengthened the US dollar.
Technically, the damage has been substantial. Since late January, more than $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred, pushing derivatives open interest to a nine-month low. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen sustained outflows, reducing total net assets from over $128 billion in mid-January to around $97 billion.
The Takeaway
Polymarket’s pricing reflects a market bracing for consolidation rather than recovery. For February, traders are overwhelmingly focused on whether Bitcoin can hold $70,000. While longer-term expectations for six-figure prices remain alive, conviction is clearly eroding. For now, $70,000 is the level that defines sentiment.
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