Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin has fallen roughly 46% from its October peak of $126,080, recently trading near $67,582. While the magnitude of the correction is clear, on-chain data suggests that the structure of selling pressure is beginning to shift. Aggregate inflows to exchanges are cooling, yet large holders continue to play an outsized role in market dynamics.
Exchange Inflows Are Slowing
In early February, as Bitcoin slid toward the $60,000 level, deposits to centralized exchanges surged to approximately 60,000 BTC. Over the past seven days, however, the average has dropped to around 23,000 BTC.
This decline points to a moderation in the intense wave of selling seen earlier in the month. Lower exchange inflows typically translate into reduced immediate sell pressure, as fewer coins are positioned for liquidation. That said, inflows remain elevated compared to previous months, indicating that distribution has not fully subsided. The market may have exited the most aggressive phase of the sell-off, but conditions remain fragile.
Whale Activity Dominates the Flow
Although total inflows have decreased, the composition of those inflows has become more concentrated. The “Exchange Whale Ratio,” which measures the share of the top 10 deposits relative to total exchange inflows, has climbed to 0.64 — its highest level since 2015.
In practical terms, 64% of all Bitcoin sent to exchanges is coming from the largest transfer transactions. This suggests that major holders continue to offload positions. Throughout 2025, analysts have described the market as undergoing a “great redistribution,” with long-term holders transferring substantial amounts of BTC to new participants in multiple waves.
The data implies that while smaller flows are tapering off, whales remain active sellers, maintaining structural pressure on price.
Is Another Leg Down Ahead for Bitcoin?
On-chain indicators also hint that a near-term breakout may be unlikely. Some models place Bitcoin’s potential “ultimate bear market bottom” near $55,000. At the same time, declining USDT inflows to exchanges suggest that available sidelined capital — often referred to as “dry powder” — is diminishing.
Prediction market probabilities further reflect caution. Current pricing implies a 57% chance that Bitcoin falls to $55,000 before rebounding to $84,000.
Overall, while the sharpest phase of selling may have eased, persistent whale distribution suggests that caution remains warranted.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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