Yeliz Akmaca 
The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to largely cancel President Donald Trump’s global tariffs actually triggered the expected pullback in the dollar index. This situation, combined with the chronic tensions between the U.S. and Iran, led investors to quickly seek safe-haven assets. This trend pushed gold to a very strong start for the week. Especially, the weakness of the dollar on a global basis has taken spot prices to the highest levels in over three weeks.
Critical 48 Hours on the Geneva Front
The development that really raised market tension came from leaked news from diplomatic channels. The U.S. and Iran have now entered the most critical two days of nuclear negotiations. In this process, described by the Trump administration as Tehran’s “last chance,” the nuclear proposal Iran presents today or tomorrow could change everything. If Washington accepts this proposal, the delegations will meet in Geneva on Friday. So, what happens if a nuclear agreement cannot be reached? If no result emerges from the table, the expectation that geopolitical risks will peak is already putting upward pressure on gold prices.
Gold Prices on the Rise
Spot gold gained 1.2% in global markets, reaching $5,163 per ounce. It is approaching a three-week high. Domestic gram gold moved in the same direction, starting the week up 1.3% at 7,277 TRY. Why are gold prices rising? This increase actually stems from both the weak dollar index and investor perception affected by Middle Eastern geopolitical risks.
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Gram Gold: 7,277 TRY
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Ounce Gold: 5,163 USD
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Spot Silver: $87.10 (up 3.1%)
Other precious metals also rose. Silver reached a two-week high at $87.30. Platinum rose to $2,182, and palladium to $1,753.
Currency Rates and the Dollar
The dollar index has lost over 9% during 2025, showing one of the weakest performances in recent times. The dollar’s decline caused the euro and sterling to rise:
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Euro: $1.1820 (+0.4%)
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Sterling: $1.3516 (+0.3%)
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Dollar/Yen: 154.40 (-0.4%)
Markets continue to price in factors such as expected rate cuts and the U.S. fiscal deficit.
Trump’s Tariff Decision and Market Impact
Trump’s decision to raise the canceled tariffs from 10% up to the legal maximum of 15% actually stirred the nerves of global trade. This decision created uncertainty in supply chains and directed investors toward gold and U.S. Treasury bonds as safe-haven assets.
The duration and scope of the tariff are still uncertain. Congressional objections and possible changes may increase market volatility.
U.S. Economy and Rate Expectations
The U.S. economy slowed more than expected in the last quarter. The drop in public spending reached its sharpest level since 1972. Nevertheless, consumer and corporate spending show the resilience of the economy. Of course, this is seen as a factor strengthening the Fed’s hand regarding rate cuts. In other words, the market continues to price economic slowdown risks in favor of gold. Markets now expect three 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts this year.
U.S.-Iran Front and Safe-Haven Demand
Iran stated that it is ready to make concessions in exchange for sanctions relief and the right to enrich uranium. This situation increases demand for gold and other safe-haven assets against the potential risk of a U.S. attack.
In mainland China, markets are closed for the Lunar New Year. Low trading volumes can sometimes lead to sharp price movements. Trading is expected to resume on Tuesday.
Status of Precious Metals
Other than gold, precious metals continued to rise:
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Spot Silver: $87.10 (up 3.1%, two-week high)
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Platinum: $2,182.60 (+1.2%)
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Palladium: $1,753.75 (+0.5%)
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