Haciyev Reşit 
Rising global uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks continue to put pressure on Bitcoin prices. Weakening investor confidence amid macroeconomic developments has intensified volatility in risky assets. Senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg, Mike McGlone, highlighted a critical price level that Bitcoin must surpass to break its current downtrend. According to McGlone, unless the leading cryptocurrency sustains a level above $74,000, the downward trend is likely to persist. The analyst also noted that the market structure remains weak and that a strong recovery would require clear improvements both on macroeconomic fronts and within market data.
Mike McGlone: “Bitcoin Still in a Bear Market”
McGlone continues to paint a cautious outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. He believes Bitcoin is still operating within clear bear market dynamics, and the ongoing liquidation process in the market is far from over.
“Bitcoin will continue its downtrend until it breaks above $74,000 and holds there,” McGlone said.
He added that the heavy concentration of altcoins and memecoins in the market makes it difficult to establish a true bottom until speculative assets are cleared. In contrast, Dave Weisberger, former CEO of CoinRoutes, highlighted the rising Bitcoin network hash rate as a potential long-term recovery signal. Weisberger suggested that governments or large institutions may be secretly mining Bitcoin, strengthening network security. This development could serve as an early indicator of a possible “V-shaped” recovery in the future.
Macro Uncertainty Weighing on Bitcoin
US President Donald Trump’s proposed new tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to suppress global risk appetite. Increased trade frictions and political uncertainty are forcing investors to act cautiously, putting direct pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. Market strategist James Lavish emphasized the impact of uncertainty on investor behavior:
“Markets hate uncertainty. Trump’s unpredictability strategy is putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is acting like a risk asset right now; we have to accept that.”
Lavish also noted that during periods of uncertainty, investors typically seek safer assets. Demand for traditional safe havens like gold and US Treasury bonds could rise, putting further short-term pressure on Bitcoin. Weisberger added that increasing tariffs and trade policy uncertainties could create ripple effects across the global economy. Disruptions in trade agreements may reduce risk appetite in business, increasing volatility in financial markets. Analysts have also noted that Bitcoin may record its fifth consecutive monthly red close, a critical point under discussion among experts.
Assessment
Experts agree that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments and global uncertainty. Bloomberg analyst McGlone warns that the downtrend may continue unless Bitcoin surpasses $74,000. However, some analysts point to the increasing network hash rate as a potential long-term recovery signal. In the coming period, both macroeconomic developments and institutional demand will be key factors shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.
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