Haciyev Reşit 
Peter Schiff, known for his advocacy of gold and critical stance on Bitcoin, made a notable claim ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. Schiff, long recognized for his skeptical views on Bitcoin, argued that the market was over-interpreting Trump’s speech. According to him, investors were already pricing in potential positive crypto-related remarks from Trump, which supported a short-term rise in Bitcoin. However, the economist warned that if Trump didn’t mention Bitcoin, a sharp sell-off could occur. Even if Trump did address Bitcoin, Schiff suggested that the “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect might still trigger a decline since the expectation was already reflected in prices.
Schiff Says Expectations Were Priced In
Schiff claimed that the recent recovery in Bitcoin prices was driven by expectations that Trump would discuss BTC in his speech. He argued that the optimism in the market was based more on speculative expectations than on strong fundamental developments, creating a short-term price movement.
Schiff commented:
“If Bitcoin isn’t mentioned, I expect selling pressure. Even if it is mentioned, those who bought before the speech may sell on the news, leading to a decline.”
His main argument was that the market had already priced in potential crypto messages from Trump, making post-speech profit-taking inevitable. According to Schiff, a price driven by expectations could face selling pressure and a short-term correction, even if the anticipated news occurs.
President Trump delivered his State of the Union address, covering topics such as tariffs, tax cuts, Iran’s nuclear program, and the defense budget. However, he did not directly mention Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. The market had anticipated a crypto-related mention due to Trump’s past pro-crypto messages. Leading up to the speech, Bitcoin’s price rose to around $66,000. After the speech, the lack of crypto commentary triggered some profit-taking, pulling the price back to approximately $65,000. Nevertheless, the sharp sell-off Schiff predicted did not materialize.
“Bitcoin Bubble Is Deflating” Claim
In another statement, Schiff described Bitcoin’s long-running upward trend as a “deflating bubble.” He argued that the market structure is unsustainable and predicted that Bitcoin could decline to around $40,000 in the medium term. This forecast has sparked discussion within the crypto community, particularly among short-term traders.
Schiff’s comments are consistent with his long-standing gold-positive, Bitcoin-critical stance. He has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin cannot serve as a lasting store of value and has issued similar warnings during previous major price surges. Thus, his latest remarks reflect a continuation of his critical viewpoint rather than introducing a new market narrative.
Assessment
Peter Schiff maintains that Bitcoin is likely to decline regardless of Trump’s speech, while market expectations drove a short-term pre-speech rally. The absence of BTC commentary triggered some profit-taking but did not lead to a major crash. Moving forward, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will depend not only on political statements but also on broader dynamics such as macroeconomic data, ETF flows, and global risk appetite. Schiff’s $40,000 prediction continues to generate debate within the crypto community.
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