Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin has come under renewed pressure over the past 72 hours as exchange inflows accelerate and derivatives markets show rising hedging demand. According to the latest weekly analysis from Bitfinex Alpha, 64% of BTC transferred to exchanges originated from large holders. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $2.6 billion in net outflows year-to-date. The signal is clear: supply is increasing while institutional demand is softening.
Why Are Whales Moving?
Exchange deposits from addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC have intensified. This is rarely random. Historically, when large holders move assets to exchanges, it often signals preparation to sell, increasing immediate liquidity pressure.
What stands out is persistence. The activity is not isolated. Wallet age, transaction frequency, and historical behavior patterns suggest this is not routine portfolio rebalancing but a cautious repositioning. Markets tend to price in such behavior quickly. And price often follows.
ETF Side: A Quiet Capital Rotation?
After strong inflows following ETF approvals in 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs are now posting net outflows of $2.6 billion for the year. That shift suggests traditional finance participants are reducing exposure.
Over the past 72 hours, broader capital rotation has been visible across risk assets, with flows moving toward gold and cash equivalents. Bitcoin appears caught in that rotation. When institutional demand weakens while whale-driven supply increases, short-term balance tilts downward.
Derivatives Desk: Put Premiums Rising
In options markets, put skew has become more pronounced. Downside protection is trading at a premium relative to calls, signaling growing hedging activity among professional traders.
Open interest (OI) is concentrated in specific downside strikes, while implied volatility trends upward. This combination frequently precedes increased spot pressure — not always immediately, but often within short timeframes.
Technical Levels: Between $78,000 and $53,000
Bitfinex Alpha identifies $78,000 as a key resistance level and $53,000 as a major psychological and structural support zone near realized price levels.
A sustained move above $78,000 would require significant new capital inflows — something current flow data does not yet confirm. A breakdown below $53,000, however, could accelerate liquidations and margin unwinds. Volume structure and lower-high patterns continue to reflect a fragile trend.
Key Data Snapshot
The core metrics are aligned:
64% of exchange inflows originate from large holders. Spot Bitcoin ETFs show -$2.6 billion in net flows year-to-date. Put demand is increasing in options markets. $78,000 stands as resistance, while $53,000 remains a critical support zone.
Conclusion
Multiple datasets are telling the same story: rising supply from whales, institutional outflows, and increased hedging activity. Until ETF inflows resume and whale exchange transfers slow meaningfully, downside risks remain present.
Market participants continue to monitor exchange flow reversals and derivatives positioning closely. For now, the data suggests caution.
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