Emre Yumlu 
A recent market assessment suggests that Bitcoin may be undervalued when measured against gold and global liquidity trends. According to Jan3 CEO and long-time Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow, current valuation metrics indicate that the digital asset could be positioned for a potential reversal.
Gold Surges While Bitcoin Lags
Gold has posted a strong upward move in recent weeks. April gold futures closed the week at $5,247.90, while tokenized gold product PAX Gold (PAXG) was trading around $5,404.14 at the time of observation. Mow characterizes gold’s current positioning as “overextended,” implying that the metal may have moved too far above its long-term trend.
In contrast, Bitcoin appears to be trading at a relative discount. Based on comparisons with gold’s market capitalization and global money supply metrics, Bitcoin is estimated to be between 24% and 66% below its historical trend alignment. From a macro perspective, such a deviation has previously preceded upward price adjustments in BTC.
Understanding the Bitcoin-to-Gold Z-Score
One of the key indicators highlighted in the analysis is the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. This statistical metric measures how far a data point deviates from its historical average. A Z-score of zero indicates alignment with the mean, while negative readings suggest the asset is trading below its long-term norm.
Currently, the Bitcoin-to-gold Z-score stands at approximately -1.24. Historically, when this ratio has fallen below -2, Bitcoin has experienced significant rallies. For instance, in November 2022—during the collapse of FTX—the metric dropped below -3, followed by a price increase of more than 150% over the subsequent 12 months. A similar pattern emerged in March 2020 during the pandemic-driven market crash, when Bitcoin fell to around $3,717 and later surged more than 300% within a year, ultimately reaching roughly $69,000 in November 2021.
The Bearish Counterargument: $50,000 in Play?
Not all market participants share the bullish outlook. Some analysts warn that ongoing geopolitical tensions and investor uncertainty could weigh further on crypto markets. In this view, Bitcoin’s recent price structure resembles elements of the 2022 bear cycle.
BTC has declined more than 50% from its peak to a low near $60,000 before staging a modest recovery toward the $66,400 level. Whether Bitcoin closes the valuation gap with gold through a rally—or faces renewed downside toward $50,000—remains a central question for the market.
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