Haciyev Reşit 
Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between the U.S. and Iran have reduced risk appetite in global markets and increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Amid this, Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize around $66,000 after the initial sharp selling wave. However, ongoing macro uncertainties and cautious investor behavior make it difficult to form a clear short-term market direction. While uncertainty persists, some analysts believe the current price range may represent a critical threshold for Bitcoin. Fluctuations in trading volumes and pressure from global markets have kept investors cautious, while historical cycles and gold-based price analyses suggest Bitcoin could be approaching a potential bottom. Therefore, both macro developments and technical data will be key in determining BTC’s price direction in the near future.
Geopolitical Tensions and Bitcoin’s Impact
Rising risk perception in global markets is causing investors to act more cautiously toward crypto assets. Geopolitical and macro events like the U.S.-Iran tensions increase short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin and other risky assets, pushing volatility higher. In such uncertain environments, investors often turn to safer assets, while crypto markets experience more pronounced swings. Bitcoin is trading around $66,000 after the recent sell-off, with market participants closely monitoring whether the price will decline further or start a new upward trend. Analysts’ technical and macro assessments play a critical role in shaping market expectations and evaluating potential scenarios.
Gold Ratio and Historical Cycles
Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Brazil’s largest crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin, offered insights on Bitcoin’s potential bottom. Speaking to Coindesk, Szuster analyzed BTC in both dollar and gold terms, presenting two different scenarios. According to him, Bitcoin reached its last dollar-denominated peak in October 2025 at around $126,000. Based on past market cycles, the current downtrend could continue until late 2026.
In contrast, gold-based pricing suggests a different timeline. Szuster noted that Bitcoin peaked against gold in January 2025, and considering previous bear markets’ average 12–13 month decline period, a potential bottom could have formed around February 2026. In this scenario, the market might enter a gradual recovery phase by March 2026. Szuster emphasized that no single indicator is sufficient and macro factors must also be considered:
“Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during periods of euphoria. Does this mean we have reached the bottom? No. But statistically, it indicates we are in the region where the best average prices tend to form.”
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s short-term direction will continue to be shaped by geopolitical events and macroeconomic data. If the gold-based model is accurate, the market could be near its bottom. However, the dollar-based cycle may indicate a longer correction period. For investors, the most important factor remains managing risk as volatility continues. Whether Bitcoin shows signs of recovery by March will be a key indicator for the broader crypto market. The bottom has not been definitively confirmed yet, but historical data and gold-based analysis suggest the market may be approaching a potential low. Investors should closely monitor macro developments and technical levels.
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