Yeliz Akmaca 
In recent months, thousands of complex analyses have tried to make sense of Bitcoin price movements. Yet according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, the answer is much simpler. Why is Bitcoin rising? The fundamental reason lies in the 21 million capped supply and the famous 4-year halving cycle that reduces miners’ rewards by half. As of March 2026, with BTC approaching $68,400, Van Eck told CNBC, “Bitcoin rises for three years, falls in the fourth. 2026 is that fourth year, and we have now touched the bottom of the bear market,” dispersing fear across the market.
Post-Cycle Bottom: VanEck’s Perspective
Van Eck told CNBC that Bitcoin prices could gradually recover in 2026. He noted that in recent months, the main driver of BTC’s price was not the coin’s fundamentals but the four-year halving cycle.
“Bitcoin rose for three consecutive years and saw a major drop in the fourth. 2026 is that fourth year. I think we are close to the bottom. No need to overcomplicate it,” said Van Eck.
Analysts remain divided: some point to institutional ETF demand, macroeconomic factors, and regulatory developments, while cycle proponents maintain the classic model is still valid.
Geopolitical Tension and Market Reaction
The recent recovery coincided with rising geopolitical risks as the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. According to Van Eck, during such uncertain periods, crypto payment systems become critical tools for transferring funds outside the traditional banking system. The attacks undermined trust in local banks, leading funds to flow via crypto networks in Dubai and the UAE.
“In a potential Iran settlement, how will money be transferred? Regions like the UAE and Dubai are crypto-friendly. Using crypto instead of Iranian banks makes sense,” Van Eck explained.
Futures, Open Interest, and Institutional Activity
Demand for Bitcoin futures has dropped to its lowest since 2024. CME open interest shows that major institutions have not exited the market.
- After testing $63,000 on Saturday, BTC rose 10% to $70,000.
- Total futures open interest fell to $32 billion, down 20% from a month ago.
- Leverage demand has significantly decreased since the all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.
- Options premiums are around 0.7, with put demand lower than call demand, indicating stable conditions aside from short-term stress.
Institutional Adoption Continues
Despite seemingly intimidating derivatives data, the other side is encouraging. While Bitcoin’s performance against gold and equities is low, spot BTC ETFs see average daily volumes exceeding $3 billion. Public companies such as Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US) hold over $79 billion in BTC on-chain.
Countries including Bhutan, El Salvador, and the UAE continue investing in Bitcoin, demonstrating that institutional adoption is far from zero and market confidence has not entirely eroded.
Bottom and Market Resilience
Although the absolute bottom of the current cycle is unclear, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the $1.4 trillion crypto market demonstrate resilience. Despite selling pressure and geopolitical chaos, the ecosystem remains standing. Whether $60,000 marks the ultimate bottom will be revealed over time.
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