Yeliz Akmaca 
Large Bitcoin whales sold most of their positions when the price surged to $74,000. Retail investors, on the other hand, started buying as prices fell below $70,000. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 12 on Saturday, entering the “extreme fear” zone, leaving the market in deep uncertainty. This is interpreted as a strong signal that the downward trend has not yet ended.
According to Santiment, if large investors sell while retail buys, the market correction is not yet complete.
Iran Sell-Off Wave and Whale Strategy
During last week’s Iran-driven sell-off, whales aggressively accumulated Bitcoin. When the price reached $74,000, the same wallets started taking profits. Retail investors, however, bought around $70,000 hoping for a recovery. Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated heavily between February 23 and March 3, then began selling at $74,000. This is regarded as a classic signal of the whale-retail divergence.
The accumulation by 10–10,000 BTC wallets triggered the $74,000 rally, while their distribution caused the current decline. This group is currently the most reliable signal source for short-term price direction.
Why is Bitcoin Dropping?
The current retracement in the market is driven by profit-taking from large wallets (whales) and retail investors buying as a contrarian indicator, deepening the supply-demand imbalance. The Fear & Greed Index falling to 12 indicates investor psychology trapped in “extreme fear.”
Bitcoin Supply and Selling Pressure
Glassnode data clarifies the situation further. About 43% of Bitcoin supply is still at a loss, and every rally is met with selling from investors aiming to break even. The $74,000 surge also hit a supply wall; whales took profits, while retail investors waited for the price to stabilize. When Bitcoin reached its local top, transactions over $1 million spiked significantly. Whale activity during rallies signals profit-taking; during dips, it indicates accumulation.
Even though the market shows strong weekly movement, monthly progress remains limited. Bitcoin reached $60,000 on February 6, $74,000 on March 5, and now hovers around $68,000, the level from about three weeks ago. Each rally is met with position closing, and each drop with recovery attempts, keeping net movement almost zero.
Market Crossroads
This dynamic can resolve in two ways. Either selling pressure exhausts, excess supply is absorbed, and Bitcoin rises above $74,000. Or buying pressure fades, retail capital is depleted, and the $60,000 floor is truly tested. Weekly whale movements indicate that major investors are leaning toward the second scenario.
Is a $60,000 Test Coming?
Bitcoin’s direction will be shaped by the whale-retail conflict and market sentiment. Volatility is high, prices are testing psychological levels, and the risk-reward balance for investors is delicate. If selling pressure persists, the drop could accelerate; if buying pressure strengthens, recovery could be more sustainable.
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