Yeliz Akmaca 
Data from the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode paints a striking picture for the XRP market. According to figures shared on March 8, roughly 60% of XRP’s circulating supply is currently held at a loss.
That portion represents approximately 36.8 billion Ripple XRP, with the total unrealized loss estimated at around $50.8 billion.
Given the asset’s recent price performance, the numbers are not entirely surprising. XRP is currently trading near $1.34, which is more than 63% below its all-time high of $3.65 recorded in July 2025. In practical terms, a large share of investors is still holding the asset below their original cost basis.
What the On-Chain Data Really Reveals
Glassnode’s unrealized profit and loss metric does more than simply count how many tokens are above or below the current market price. Instead, it measures the difference between the current market value and the price at which each coin last moved on-chain.
Because the metric is weighted by the purchase price of every token, analysts often consider it a more reliable way to assess market sentiment and investor positioning.
For XRP, performance across several timeframes has been relatively weak:
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About 0.5% decline over the past week
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Roughly 7.1% down on a monthly basis
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More than 42% lower year over year
This has naturally created a large pool of paper losses. The roughly $50.8 billion in unrealized losses also suggests that selling pressure could re-emerge if the price approaches the cost basis of many holders.
There is another detail worth noting. XRP’s most recent attempt to regain momentum stalled near $1.45, where the asset faced resistance and pulled back. The rejection occurred during the same week when U.S.-based XRP ETF products recorded net outflows.
On March 6, those products saw $16.62 million leave the funds, marking the largest single-day withdrawal since late January.
A Sudden Surge in Derivatives Activity
Despite the cautious tone in the spot market, activity in derivatives markets has increased noticeably. Data from CoinGlass shows that XRP futures trading volumes have surged across several exchanges.
On BitMEX, for example, XRP futures volume jumped more than 7,000% to around $49 million. Such spikes are often seen when traders begin taking leveraged positions while waiting for a clearer market direction.
Large exchanges have also reported strong activity. Over the last 24 hours:
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Binance recorded roughly $733 million in XRP futures volume
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Bybit and OKX also reported significant trading turnover
However, signals from the spot market appear somewhat softer. Data shared by the analytics account Arab Chain indicates that Binance’s 30-day trading volume Z-Score currently sits near −1.16. In simple terms, this suggests daily trading volume is still below its recent average.
In other words, the picture is somewhat mixed. Derivatives traders appear increasingly active, while spot investors remain more cautious.
Analysts Are Divided on What Comes Next
There is no clear consensus among analysts about where XRP may head next. Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto noted on X that XRP’s historical market cycles have often included both sharp declines and extended consolidation phases.
According to the analyst, the current structure may represent a period where time — rather than price — puts pressure on investors. Some commentators refer to this type of phase as “time-based capitulation,” where sentiment gradually resets during long periods of sideways price movement rather than through a sudden crash.
More cautious projections also exist. Some market observers argue that if the downward channel that began in mid-2025 continues, XRP could potentially revisit sub-$1 levels.
In several of those scenarios, a frequently mentioned support area sits near $0.90.
For now, the XRP market appears balanced between two competing forces: a large pool of unrealized losses on one side and rising derivatives activity on the other. Which side ultimately dominates will likely depend on how the price reacts to the next key resistance and support levels.