Yeliz Akmaca 
New developments in US-Iran tensions are raising alarms in global energy markets. US intelligence has reportedly detected signs that Iran may be preparing to deploy mines in the Hormuz Strait. The news triggered a double-digit drop in oil prices, falling to $80–85 per barrel, intensifying volatility in the market.
Markets are monitoring geopolitical risks while also pricing in President Donald Trump’s signals that tensions could ease. The interplay of these two narratives has led to rapid and sharp movements in energy markets.
Oil Prices Plunge Double-Digits
Oil prices, which had reached their highest levels since 2022 in the previous session, experienced a sharp pullback on Tuesday.
Brent crude futures fell by $14.23 (-14.5%) to $84.73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $14.46 (-15.5%) to $80.31 per barrel. Both benchmarks recorded one of the steepest daily declines in recent years.
The drop was largely driven by Trump’s remarks suggesting that the Iran conflict may not last long, reducing expectations of prolonged disruptions in oil supply and quickly unwinding risk premiums in prices.
The easing in energy prices also affected global equities. US stock indices closed higher:
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Dow Jones: +0.74%
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S&P 500: +0.48%
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Nasdaq: +0.65%
Hormuz Strait Mine Allegations
Despite the drop in oil prices, field developments suggest the risk has not disappeared.
According to CBS News, US intelligence has reportedly detected preparatory steps by Iran to deploy mines in the Hormuz Strait.
The Hormuz Strait is one of the most critical channels for global energy trade, with roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passing through. Any military action in the strait could trigger immediate and sharp price swings in energy markets.
Pentagon: 140 US Soldiers Wounded
The military toll of the conflict is becoming clearer.
The Pentagon reported that 140 US soldiers have been wounded since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, though some sources indicate the number may be approaching 150.
This highlights the intensity of clashes on the ground.
UN Security Council Holds Emergency Meeting
Diplomatic activity has also accelerated due to the risk of a regional crisis.
The United Nations Security Council is reportedly convening an emergency meeting concerning conflicts in Lebanon, with a focus on the potential spread of tensions along the Iran-Israel front.
Market Faces Two Scenarios
Energy markets are currently weighing two potential scenarios:
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Tensions ease quickly, and oil shipments largely return to normal, which could further reduce risk premiums in prices.
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Military risks around the Hormuz Strait intensify, and Iran targets oil shipments, potentially triggering a new energy shock.
For now, markets are pricing in a calmer scenario, but even small developments in the US-Iran standoff could rapidly shift oil prices again.
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