Haciyev Reşit 
Recent declines in the cryptocurrency market have drawn investor attention, prompting Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, to share his views on the current market situation and future expectations. Hougan noted that the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin—a concept widely discussed for years—is beginning to change as institutional investors enter the market. According to him, market volatility and price movements are influenced not only by macroeconomic developments but also by investor psychology and cycle expectations. Hougan emphasized that the increasing presence of institutional investors could significantly reshape the structure of the crypto ecosystem in the long term. He also highlighted several altcoin projects that investors may want to watch closely in the coming period.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Changing
Speaking on the New Era Finance Podcast, Hougan said that many of Bitcoin’s past sharp declines were largely driven by market psychology. For years, investors have acted according to the expectation of a four-year market cycle, and Hougan believes this narrative has sometimes triggered chain reactions of selling. According to Hougan, large Bitcoin holders often sold their holdings when they believed the cycle was nearing its end, creating downward pressure on the market. He added that options strategies and fears about the cycle’s conclusion have also influenced investor behavior.
“The main reason Bitcoin dropped was that large investors sold due to the four-year cycle expectation.”
Gold’s Rally and the “Digital Gold” Debate
During a period when Bitcoin experienced declines, Gold reached record highs. This caused some investors to question the “digital gold” narrative often associated with Bitcoin. However, Hougan argued that the reason is relatively simple. Since 2022, central banks have been purchasing large amounts of physical gold. Following the Russia‑Ukraine War, the freezing of certain countries’ assets led many governments to reconsider their reserve strategies. As a result, gold has been strongly supported by state-level buyers, while Bitcoin still reacts more sensitively to the psychological cycles of retail and institutional investors. Hougan also pointed out that gold’s roughly $30 trillion market value is not negative for Bitcoin. Instead, it demonstrates how large the store-of-value market can be.
Institutional Investors Could Reshape the Next Bull Market
Hougan reminded listeners that previous crypto bull markets were largely driven by aggressive retail buying. However, he believes institutional investors will play a much more decisive role in the next cycle. Institutional investors typically accumulate assets gradually each quarter, which could lead to a more stable market environment.
“Compared to previous bull markets, we may see a market that is less volatile, rising more gradually, and perhaps a bit more ‘boring.’”
Hougan’s “Mount Rushmore” of Crypto Projects
According to Hougan, the crypto market is no longer just about Bitcoin. Institutional interest is increasingly concentrated in a few major blockchain projects, which he described as the “Mount Rushmore of crypto.”
The projects he highlighted include:
- Ethereum
- Solana
- Chainlink
Hougan particularly emphasized Chainlink, noting that it provides critical infrastructure by connecting blockchains with real-world data. According to him, if Chainlink were a traditional technology company, it would likely be considered one of the most attractive investments in the tech sector.
Overall Assessment
According to Matt Hougan, the recent downturn in the crypto market is driven more by investor psychology and cycle expectations than by macroeconomic developments alone. The widely discussed four-year cycle narrative has influenced selling decisions among some large investors, creating short-term pressure on prices. However, the growing presence of institutional capital suggests that the crypto market could become more stable and mature over time. Hougan’s focus on infrastructure projects like Chainlink also highlights that institutional interest is expanding beyond Bitcoin into other parts of the blockchain ecosystem.
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