Haciyev Reşit 
The race for the Federal Reserve chairmanship in the U.S. has gained momentum. Beyond the two leading names previously highlighted in President Donald Trump’s appointment process, a new candidate has begun to draw attention. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller has joined the list of candidates preparing to be interviewed by Trump and has emerged as a strong contender among Wall Street favorites.
Waller’s Rise and Its Significance
According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Christopher Waller has become one of the standout figures in the Fed chair race, alongside Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Trump is expected to hold meetings with candidates this week and next week, although sources close to the process note that meetings could be postponed or canceled depending on the President’s assessments.
Waller was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board by Trump and confirmed by the Senate in 2020. Recently, he has stood out as one of the strongest supporters of interest rate cuts within the Fed. In July, Waller was the only official to vote in favor of a rate cut, opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged. This stance has been welcomed positively by investors and Wall Street circles.
Market Expectations
On the prediction market Kalshi, probabilities for the candidates are shifting rapidly. Kevin Hassett appears to be leading with roughly a 50% probability, followed by Kevin Warsh at 29%. Waller has climbed to 19%, drawing attention as a fast-rising candidate. This shift suggests that the race is no longer limited to just two names.
Within Wall Street circles, Waller’s positive perception is driven by his ability to manage internal disagreements at the Fed and his role as one of the early advocates of certain rate-cut arguments later adopted by Chair Jerome Powell. In an economist survey conducted by WSJ in October, Waller emerged as the most preferred candidate for the Fed chair position.
Waller’s Disadvantages and Challenges
Despite his growing momentum, Waller’s candidacy also raises questions among circles close to Trump. Warsh and Hassett are known to have stronger personal relationships with Trump. Additionally, Waller’s vote in September 2024 for a half-point rate cut—before Trump returned to office—has been viewed by some as a sign of “disloyalty.” This perception continues to place Waller at a relative disadvantage.
Trump appears to have learned from past decisions regarding the Fed chair. He has previously stated that appointing Jerome Powell in 2017 was the result of “bad advice” and has emphasized that he will be far more cautious this time. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that Trump will likely announce his decision in early January, noting that the process will move entirely at the President’s own pace.
Assessment
Christopher Waller’s emergence as a Fed chair candidate is a development closely watched by markets and investors. With his experience in interest rate policy and macroeconomic management, Waller presents a strong candidate profile. However, his limited personal ties to Trump and past voting decisions leave the final outcome uncertain. Markets continue to monitor how this leadership race may shape future Fed policy and the direction of the U.S. economy.
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