Emre Yumlu 
Recent volatility in the crypto market has revived an important question: Is Bitcoin currently mispriced relative to the broader macroeconomic landscape? According to André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin may be offering an “asymmetric risk-reward setup” reminiscent of the early COVID-19 period.
A COVID-Like Macro Environment: Is Bitcoin Undervalued?
Dragosch explains that the last time he observed such a compelling market structure was in March 2020, when intense global uncertainty pushed Bitcoin from around $8,000 to below $5,000. Today, he argues, Bitcoin is once again behaving as though market sentiment and macroeconomic expectations are deeply out of sync.
He notes that Bitcoin appears to be “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” a year marked by aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and the collapse of major crypto firms like FTX.
Bitcoin Has Already Priced In a Recession Scenario
According to Dragosch, Bitcoin is trading as if a recession were already underway. He emphasizes that much of the negative news flow is already reflected in the current price. This contrasts with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent reassurance that the country is not projected to enter a recession in 2026.
Market structure, however, has remained shaky. After hitting a new all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, Bitcoin entered a decline triggered by a $19 billion liquidation event on October 10. Additional pressure came from U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports.
Sentiment worsened further when Bitcoin slid below the psychological $100,000 threshold on November 13. The price briefly dipped under $90,000 on November 20 before rebounding above the level in the following days.
Global Growth Could Strengthen Through 2026
Dragosch believes that earlier monetary stimulus could start feeding into global markets, supporting economic expansion into 2026 — a pattern similar to the post-COVID recovery phase. This, he suggests, could lay the foundation for significant upside in Bitcoin.
“I genuinely think we’re looking at a similar macro backdrop right now,” he said, indicating optimism toward Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory.
Market Participants Are Also Leaning Bullish
Other analysts share this perspective. Crypto trader Alessio Rastani argues that the latest pullback does not indicate a new bear cycle, but instead resembles a historically repeating setup that has preceded strong rallies about 75% of the time.
Meanwhile, BitMine Chair Tom Lee recently expressed confidence that Bitcoin will reclaim the $100,000 mark before year-end and could even push toward new all-time highs.
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