Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin (BTC)’s sharp pullback over recent weeks has unsettled short-term market sentiment. However, when viewed through a longer-term lens, current price behavior appears consistent with Bitcoin’s historical halving-based market structure. Rather than signaling a breakdown, recent moves suggest that the four-year cycle framework may still be shaping market dynamics.
A Steep Drop From the Peak — But Historically Familiar
Bitcoin retreated from its cycle high near $126,000 into the $60,000–$70,000 range, representing a drawdown of approximately 52%. While such a decline can appear alarming in isolation, historical data shows that similar corrections have occurred after every major halving-driven peak.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin has repeatedly experienced post-peak declines ranging from 50% to as much as 80%. From this perspective, the current correction fits well within historical norms rather than signaling an abnormal structural shift.
The April 2024 halving also aligns closely with past timelines. In earlier cycles, Bitcoin typically reached its cycle top roughly 12 to 18 months after halving events. Those peaks were then followed by prolonged corrective phases, often lasting close to a year, before a new accumulation period began.
The “This Time Is Different” Narrative Returns
As in every cycle, debates have resurfaced around whether the four-year model still applies. Some market participants argue that global liquidity conditions now exert a greater influence on Bitcoin’s price than halving mechanics. Others suggest the market may be transitioning toward a longer, five-year cycle.
Despite these arguments, recent developments indicate that structural evolution has not eliminated cyclical behavior. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased regulatory clarity, and a more mature DeFi ecosystem have not prevented a post-peak correction from unfolding.
ETFs Amplify Volatility in Both Directions
During the latest sell-off, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $2.1 billion in net outflows. This highlighted a key reality of institutional access: increased liquidity accelerates price movements on both the upside and the downside.
While DeFi infrastructure has proven more resilient than during the 2022 downturn, declines in total value locked (TVL) and slower staking inflows demonstrate that no segment of the market is immune to broader bear-market conditions.
Where Is the Bottom?
Bitcoin’s intraday rebound from $60,000 toward $70,000 suggests that early support may be forming. However, historical bear markets typically last between six and twelve months and often include multiple failed recovery attempts before a durable bottom is established.
Current indicators reflect significant deleveraging. Stablecoin dominance sits at 10.3%, funding rates are hovering near neutral, and futures open interest has fallen by roughly 55%. Within the four-year cycle framework, Bitcoin now appears to be near the early stages of the corrective phase.
The core question is not whether the cycle still exists, but whether market participants are willing to accept that Bitcoin may once again be following a familiar historical path.
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