Emre Yumlu 
Although Bitcoin has struggled to deliver the strong price performance many investors expected in recent months, developments on the institutional side suggest that its long-term outlook remains intact. Recent commentary from ARK Invest analyst David Puell indicates that Bitcoin is transitioning into a more mature and structurally different market phase.
A Shift in Bitcoin’s Investment Narrative
According to Puell, the next stage of Bitcoin’s evolution will no longer be defined by whether investors “believe” in the asset, but by how much exposure they want and through which investment vehicles they choose to gain it. This shift became particularly evident after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, which significantly reshaped the investor landscape.
By removing the operational complexities of direct custody, ETFs have made Bitcoin more accessible to institutional investors. At the same time, an increasing number of companies have begun allocating Bitcoin to their balance sheets, reinforcing demand that is less speculative and more strategic in nature.
Institutional Demand Reshaping Supply Dynamics
Puell highlights that spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries now control approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply—an allocation well above earlier market expectations. This concentration suggests that a growing share of Bitcoin is being locked up by long-term holders, reducing available circulating supply.
ARK Invest believes this structural demand has already become a key driver of price behavior throughout 2025 and could continue influencing market dynamics into 2026. The accelerated pace of institutional accumulation points to a market that is becoming increasingly professionalized, with lower relative volatility compared to previous cycles.
ARK Invest’s Long-Term Bitcoin Price Scenarios
Despite Bitcoin’s muted short-term performance, ARK Invest maintains strong confidence in its long-term valuation framework. The firm’s 2030 projections outline three distinct scenarios. In a bearish case, Bitcoin could reach approximately $300,000. The base scenario places BTC around $710,000, while the bullish outlook envisions a price as high as $1.5 million.
Puell notes that the strengthening “digital gold” narrative, combined with expanding institutional adoption, supports the plausibility of BTC trading within this broad range over the coming years.
Toward Lower Volatility and Broader Adoption
Looking ahead, Puell suggests that as volatility continues to compress and drawdowns become less severe, BTC may appeal to a wider range of investors with lower risk tolerance. This evolution would mark a significant departure from Bitcoin’s early reputation as a highly speculative asset.
Overall, ARK Invest’s assessment portrays Bitcoin as an asset moving steadily toward institutional normalization—one that is increasingly positioned as a long-term portfolio component rather than a short-term speculative bet.
In the comment section, you can freely share your comments. You can write us your opinions on the subject in this section.. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter for the latest news and updates.