Emre Yumlu 
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most recognizable figures in the crypto industry, recently shared a cautious short-term outlook for Bitcoin. Known for his bold bullish forecasts, Hayes surprised many by saying that he would not invest in Bitcoin at the current moment.
According to Hayes, the smarter approach right now is to wait and observe global macroeconomic developments, particularly the next moves from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
Federal Reserve Policy Could Be the Key Driver for Bitcoin
Hayes explained that his decision to re-enter the Bitcoin market will largely depend on whether the Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy. In his view, Bitcoin becomes significantly more attractive when central banks start injecting liquidity into the financial system.
He pointed out that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could increase the likelihood of large-scale government spending. If that happens, the U.S. may eventually resort to expanding liquidity to support its economic and military commitments. Such an environment could create favorable conditions for assets like Bitcoin.
Hayes emphasized that while some investors argue that war itself benefits Bitcoin, the more accurate interpretation is that money printing benefits Bitcoin. Historically, periods of monetary expansion have tended to support risk assets and alternative investments.
Geopolitical Tensions Could Pressure Markets
The ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran could weigh on global markets, according to Hayes. Escalating conflict often reduces overall risk appetite among investors, which can lead to broad sell-offs across multiple asset classes.
In such a scenario, not only equities but also digital assets like Bitcoin could face downward pressure. Hayes suggested that if the conflict continues to intensify, the market could experience a significant wave of selling.
Under those circumstances, Bitcoin could potentially fall below the $60,000 level. A move like that might trigger a cascade of liquidations in leveraged positions, amplifying volatility across the market.
Bitcoin briefly approached the $60,000 level earlier in February before recovering slightly. At present, the asset is trading near the $69,000 range after a modest rebound.
Hayes Remains Bullish in the Long Term
Despite his cautious stance in the short term, Hayes remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
He previously projected that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2026, and he continues to stand by that forecast. In his view, the long-term structural drivers supporting Bitcoin remain intact.
Hayes also noted that the period during which Bitcoin trades below $100,000 may not last for many more years. As institutional adoption grows and the market matures, such price levels could eventually become far less common.
Not All Analysts Share the Same View for Bitcoin
While Hayes is taking a wait-and-see approach, some analysts hold a more optimistic short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market.
Recent strength in technology stocks, particularly the surge in the Nasdaq index, has led some market observers to believe that Bitcoin and altcoins could benefit from renewed investor optimism.
According to this perspective, the broader macroeconomic environment may still support further upside in the crypto market.
Markets Are Watching the Fed
Ultimately, Hayes’ stance reflects a broader theme currently shaping financial markets: the influence of central bank policy. While he maintains strong confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, he believes that the next major bullish phase could be closely tied to renewed monetary easing.
For that reason, Hayes prefers to remain on the sidelines for now, waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve before making new Bitcoin investments.
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