Emre Yumlu 
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, continues to project a highly bullish outlook for Bitcoin despite recent market volatility. Reiterating his year-end target of $250,000, Hayes argues that the decline to $80,600 marked a significant market bottom rather than the start of a deeper downturn. Speaking on the Milk Road podcast, he emphasized that dollar liquidity has reached its lowest point and is now positioned to support renewed appetite for risk assets.
ETF Flows Misinterpreted by the Market
According to Hayes, the sharp pullback from $125,000 to $80,000 stemmed largely from a misunderstanding surrounding spot Bitcoin ETF flows. While many investors believed the inflows reflected strong institutional accumulation, Hayes explained that the majority of this activity was tied to arbitrage-driven basis trades rather than long-term buying. Bloomberg data shows that major players such as Brevin Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenir ranked among the largest holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.
These firms, Hayes noted, were not building directional Bitcoin exposure. Instead, they were purchasing the ETF while shorting CME futures to capture the spread. When funding rates collapsed after October 10, these positions were unwound rapidly—resulting in ETF selling and futures repurchasing. Hayes believes retail investors misread this shift as a sudden reversal in institutional sentiment rather than a mechanical trade unwinding.
Liquidity Conditions Begin to Stabilize
Hayes also pointed to macro liquidity pressures that weighed on the market. Between July and November, the U.S. Treasury raised nearly $1 trillion as it rebuilt its cash balance, while the Federal Reserve continued quantitative tightening. Together, these actions drained close to $1 trillion from dollar money markets. Now, with the Treasury General Account approaching $900 billion—near its stated target—and the Fed halting balance sheet reductions, Hayes sees signs that liquidity is bottoming out.
Credit Expansion Could Accelerate in 2026
Looking ahead, Hayes expects credit growth to be driven more by commercial banks than by the Federal Reserve. He highlighted JP Morgan’s plans to deploy roughly $1.5 trillion in lending to the industrial sector as an example of how private credit creation may gain momentum in the coming years. In his view, improving liquidity dynamics and future credit expansion together create a strong backdrop for Bitcoin.
Despite uncertainty across global markets, Hayes remains confident that Bitcoin can surge to $250,000 by December 31—a target he believes is increasingly supported by both structural and macroeconomic factors.
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