Haciyev Reşit 
Recent sharp price declines in the cryptocurrency market have reignited debates among investors about whether the market is still undergoing a bull-market correction or has officially entered a bear market. A clear and striking perspective on this debate was provided by Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. According to Moreno, current market conditions indicate a clearly downward trend rather than a short-term correction, signaling a bona fide bear market, and investors should not ignore this reality.
Declines in Bitcoin Are Not New
The recent sharp drops in Bitcoin and altcoins are not entirely unexpected. The downward trend that began with the major crash in October has continued over the following months, putting sustained pressure on the market. With the latest selling wave, Bitcoin’s price fell below $75,000, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped to around $2.6 trillion.
This situation has renewed the question among investors and analysts:
“Are these moves a healthy correction, or has the market officially entered a bear trend?” Opinions remain divided, with the duration and depth of the declines at the center of the debate.
Julio Moreno: “This Is a Bear Market”
In his latest analysis shared on X, Julio Moreno explicitly argued that the current market structure cannot be interpreted as a bull-market correction. According to Moreno, price movements and on-chain data indicate that the market is now operating under bear-market dynamics. He pointed to treasury companies holding Bitcoin as the primary driver behind the recent declines.
“If you were to point out the culprits of this bear market, it would be treasury companies. They diverted real demand from the spot Bitcoin market and then eliminated it entirely.”
Moreno explains that large-scale and aggressive integration of Bitcoin into corporate financial strategies initially created the perception of strong demand. However, over time, organic demand in the spot market weakened, making the market structure increasingly fragile. He argues that this has undermined long-term price stability and is one of the key reasons for the current bear market.
“We’ve Been in a Bear Market Since November” Warning
The CryptoQuant research chief reminded that he has repeatedly stated that the market has been in a bear phase since early November. At that time, Bitcoin was trading around $100,000, with some indicators even suggesting $110,000, which Moreno believes misled investors. According to him, indicators used to identify bottom points in bull markets are ineffective during bear markets. He warned that attempting rapid buys during declines is extremely risky.
“Bear-market bottoms take months to form. Looking for a bottom without a new uptrend is dangerous.”
Takeaways
The assessments of CryptoQuant and Julio Moreno emphasize the need for caution in the crypto market. The current situation suggests that short-term recoveries can be misleading and investors should consider bear-market dynamics when making decisions.
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