Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average, sparking panic among investors. Analysts are debating whether this signals the start of a bear market or just a short-term pullback. On Tuesday, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $99,000, crossing a key macro indicator and reigniting market discussions.
Bitcoin’s Technical Breakdown
According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin dropped below its 365-day moving average at $101,564. Moreno stated on X, “This was the final confirmation of the 2022 bear market,” adding that prices need to rebound above this level quickly. Coinbase data showed BTC briefly hitting a low of $98,900 before slightly recovering to around $101,800.
The 365-day moving average tracks the average price of Bitcoin over the past year and serves as a key technical indicator. Market observers consider this metric critical for gauging investor sentiment. When BTC drops below this average, it is often seen as a strong bearish signal. Analyst Decode noted that Bitcoin also briefly fell below this level in April.
Correction or Bear Market?
Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima commented that Tuesday’s drop technically indicates a bear market. BTC has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached in early October. However, Adziima emphasized that this is the fourth correction in the 2025 bull cycle—a routine market cleanup rather than the start of a long bearish period. Historical data shows that in bull markets, a 20% drop often leads to a 40% recovery within 60 days.
Tom Cohen, Head of Investment and Trading at Algoz Technology, added, “For Bitcoin to enter a true bear market, it would have had to breach the $100,000 level earlier.” Cohen also highlighted that macroeconomic developments, political moves by former President Trump, and the upcoming U.S. interest rate decision in December will heavily influence the market.
Bull Market Perspective
Although falling below the 365-day moving average caused short-term panic, experts view it as a normal correction within a bull cycle. Historical trends suggest that BTC can recover quickly from such dips. Market watchers note that if support holds, a strong year-end rally, commonly called a “Santa Claus rally,” is still possible.
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