Yeliz Akmaca 
The Bitcoin (BTC) market entered the year appearing calm on the surface, but underlying dynamics suggest a sharp reshaping behind the scenes. Prices have been moving within a narrow range for weeks, yet on-chain activity indicates that this sideways behavior could be misleading. Notably, large wallets are making moves that hint at a market preparing in a different direction than it appears.
Since mid-December, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have collectively added 56,227 BTC to their portfolios. At current prices, this represents over $5.3 billion in accumulation. Meanwhile, smaller retail investors have been taking profits, highlighting a divergence that historically signals important market thresholds.
Timing is crucial. Major accumulations occurred around Bitcoin’s local bottom. Even though prices stayed relatively flat, this ongoing buildup quietly suggests the potential for an upward breakout. The market seems calm on the surface, but balance is shifting behind the scenes.
Retail Sells While Whales Position
Over the past 24 hours, the trend has become clearer. A significant portion of retail traders interpreted the recent rally as a “bull trap” and opted to take profits. While this behavior may appear cautious, history shows it often sets the stage for market moves in the opposite direction.
On-chain analytics indicate that cryptocurrency markets frequently follow large and mid-sized holders rather than small wallets. Therefore, increased retail selling combined with continued whale accumulation could open space for upward market growth. The key risk lies more in timing than in speed of movement.
Bitcoin Price Consolidates, Background Activity Revealed
BTC has been range-bound between $87,000 and $94,000 for roughly six weeks, a level unbroken since mid-November. Prices are now approaching the top of this range, while supply distribution on-chain is shifting noticeably.
Analysts note that the proportion of BTC in profit dropped from 67% to 47%, signaling that selling pressure has weakened. Short positions in futures markets are being squeezed, yet overall market leverage remains low. This combination favors a controlled, healthy upward continuation rather than an abrupt move.
Consolidation Continues, But Direction Emerging
The current structure represents a classic “bullish consolidation.” Immediate resistance lies between $95,000 and $100,000, with heavy call option interest at the $100k strike for January expiry, reinforcing its psychological significance.
Short-term support exists between $88,000 and $90,000. A break below this zone could trigger deeper corrections. However, current on-chain data and supply behavior suggest that the probability of an upward breakout outweighs downside risk for now.
Bitcoin started 2026 with strength, achieving a 4-hour close above $94,000. Maintaining this level signals weakening resistance and opens the path toward the $100,000 range.
- New Target: Daily closes above $94,000 are expected to fuel momentum, potentially pushing BTC into six-figure territory.
- Critical Support: The nearest support sits at $92,000, where buyer activity has remained strong since November 21.
- Notable Dynamic: Unlike previous cycles, sharp post-rally retracements have been limited, with price holding higher levels successfully.
In short, as long as $92,000 support holds, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains upward.
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