Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin has once again slipped into “bear mode” following heavy September sell-offs. The price tumbled toward $109,000, with nearly $1.7 billion worth of long positions liquidated this month alone. The downturn has shaken retail investors’ confidence, but analysts suggest this may only be a small part of the bigger picture. Historically, after the so-called “September curse,” Bitcoin often gears up for its strongest quarter of the year.
Why Is September Always Harsh on Bitcoin?
Historical data shows that September tends to bring losses to the crypto market. On average, Bitcoin investors see around 6% declines during this month. While many expected 2025 to defy the trend, the promising early gains quickly vanished.
It’s not just retail investors exiting the market. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw four consecutive days of outflows, amounting to $1.13 billion pulled out, while Ethereum ETFs recorded another $795.8 million in withdrawals during the same period.
Still, history suggests that periods of panic can also present buying opportunities for larger players.
Bearish Setup or Imminent Breakout?
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is showing short-term weakness. The price fell below the 200-day moving average ($112,400), leaving $104,000 as the next critical support level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 38, indicating fading momentum.
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating within the $108K–$115K range, hinting at an upcoming breakout. At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 33, placing the market firmly in the “fear” zone. Ironically, such fear-driven environments often mark the beginning of significant rallies.
Q4: Bitcoin’s Historically Strong Season
Looking at past performance, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest period. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has delivered an average 85% return during the last quarter of the year. November alone has averaged 46% gains, while October has brought around 21% increases.
This year may follow a similar trajectory. Analysts point to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and a shift toward risk assets as major catalysts. On top of that, a striking supply-demand imbalance could fuel Bitcoin’s growth: only $77 billion worth of new BTC is issued annually, compared to an estimated $3 trillion in institutional demand.
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