Yeliz Akmaca 
Crypto markets are approaching a critical turning point today. A total of $16 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts will expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on October 31, 2025. This event represents one of the largest derivatives events of the year.
As volatility rises, traders are focusing on “max pain” levels. According to Deribit, this expiry surpasses last week’s $6 billion event. The rollover of October contracts may increase liquidity and trigger short-term price movements.
Bitcoin Price Faces Max Pain Pressure
Bitcoin trades at $109,287 at the time of writing. During this expiry, 124,171 contracts, approximately $13.59 billion, will close. The max pain level sits at $114,000, the point where option holders experience maximum losses. Historically, BTC tends to move toward these levels as expiry approaches, reflecting market makers’ hedging activity.
Data shows a put-to-call ratio of 0.70, indicating a mild bullish bias. However, Greeks.live analysts warn that the market remains “fragile and bidless” after recent liquidations.
Key support levels lie at $112,000 and the CME gap between $110,000–$111,000. Resistance exists between $116,000–$118,000. If support breaks, $106,000 could trigger roughly a 3% correction.
Open interest has dropped from 100,000 to 70,000 contracts over the past month, suggesting waning trader participation and profit-taking.
Ethereum Shows Cautious Bullish Outlook
Ethereum trades at $3,854, with 646,902 contracts worth $2.49 billion expiring today. The max pain level is $4,100, slightly above the current price. Deribit data shows 381,462 call contracts surpassing 265,440 put contracts, signaling that traders hedge against upside while remaining cautious.
The put-to-call ratio of 0.70 reflects limited optimism. Deribit analysts note that easing U.S.-China trade tensions and improving macro conditions increase short-term upside risk.
Meanwhile, Greeks.live highlights that buyers remain weak and downside risk persists.
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