Emre Yumlu 
As the weekend approaches, the Bitcoin market remains relatively steady, trading around $105,984 during the Asian session. The leading cryptocurrency posted a modest 1.2% gain over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, Ethereum also saw upward movement, trading at $2,555 with a daily increase of 1.3%.
This calm price action reflects the lingering uncertainty following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The Fed’s cautious tone and focus on inflation are weighing on short-term investor sentiment.
Is Seasonal Strength for Bitcoin Kicking In?
Historically, June and July tend to be quieter months for the crypto market—and 2025 appears no different so far. Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin’s short-term implied volatility has dipped below 40%, effectively erasing the risk premium tied to recent geopolitical tensions.
Options markets are showing a tilt toward protective strategies, with put options trading at higher premiums than calls. This suggests investors are hedging against potential short-term pullbacks.
Bullish Structure Still Intact for Bitcoin
Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, highlighted that the broader technical picture remains favorable:
“Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a bullish manner. A breakout above resistance levels could trigger a move toward the $145,000 region.”
He also noted that Ethereum is showing signs of strength. A breakout above $2,900 could pave the way for a push toward $3,400.
Regulatory Progress Brings Institutional Confidence
In a positive development for the crypto space, the U.S. Senate passed a bill to regulate stablecoins, signaling a shift toward clearer legislation. This is seen as a key step toward greater institutional involvement.
“Globally, we’re witnessing regulatory momentum that could accelerate crypto adoption,” Kruger added.
Range-Bound in the Short Term, But Optimism Builds for H2
For now, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound between $102,000 and $108,000 due to end-of-month options expiries and systematic portfolio rebalancing.
Still, historical patterns suggest that the second half of the year tends to favor stronger performance in digital assets.
“The worst might be behind us,” said Kruger. “The next rally could catch a lot of investors off guard.”
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