Emre Yumlu 
After weeks of downward pressure in the crypto market, sentiment among Bitcoin investors has begun to shift. Expectations that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) could deliver a rate cut at its December meeting have risen sharply, giving BTC holders renewed confidence. This sudden jump in odds has led some analysts to speculate that Bitcoin may be close to establishing a temporary bottom.
Rate Cut Probability Nearly Doubles Within 24 Hours
According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting surged to 69.40% on Friday. Just one day earlier, the expectation stood at 39.10%. This dramatic shift reflects a broader revival in market risk appetite, even as Bitcoin continues to face sell-offs.
Bitcoin has fallen more than 10% over the past week, currently trading around $85,071. Still, some analysts argue that the rising probability of a policy easing cycle could help stabilize the asset. Crypto analyst Moritz noted that the change in expectations may be enough “to find a short-term bottom.”
Dovish Fed Comments Boost Market Confidence
The surge in market optimism was partly fueled by comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said the central bank could cut rates “in the near term” without jeopardizing its inflation mandate. Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal pointed out that these remarks were a major driver behind the surge in rate-cut expectations.
Not everyone is fully convinced. Economist Mohamed El-Erian cautioned market watchers against becoming overly enthusiastic. However, sentiment across the crypto community remains notably more positive, with many analysts emphasizing that lower interest rates historically support risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Analysts Highlight a “Historically Bullish” Setup
Commenting on the new macro backdrop, analyst Jesse Eckel said the broader setup looks “historically bullish.” He questioned why Bitcoin continues to decline while the market transitions from a tightening phase into a potential easing cycle. Similarly, analyst Curb argued that the change in monetary conditions could trigger a powerful rally across the crypto market.
Market Sentiment Weak, but Pricing Dynamics Are Shifting
Coinbase Institutional noted that markets may have mispriced the probability of a rate cut due to lingering inflation concerns. Research pointing to the short-term disinflationary impact of tariff increases could also strengthen the case for easing.
Despite the improving macro signals, overall market sentiment remains fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dipped to 14 on Friday, marking another day in the “Extreme Fear” zone.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.