Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin miners enjoyed a brief relief on Thursday when mining difficulty dropped. However, analysts expect the difficulty to rise again in December. Hashprice, which measures expected profitability per unit of computing power, remains historically low, directly affecting miner behavior.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty and December Forecast
The next Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment is scheduled for December 11 at block 927,360. According to CoinWarz, difficulty will increase slightly from 149.30 trillion to 149.80 trillion, placing additional pressure on miners. The previous adjustment reduced difficulty from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion, shortening the average block time to about 9.97 minutes.
Rising difficulty directly impacts miners’ operational costs and decision-making. Hashprice values play a critical role in determining whether miners continue running their machines or scale back operations.
Hashprice and Miner Behavior
Hashrate Index reports that hashprice is currently 38.3 PH/s per day, a recovery from the record low below 35 PH/s seen on November 21. When hashprice falls below 40 PH/s, miners must decide whether to power down machines or optimize energy use.
Behavioral analysis in the mining sector shows that low hashprice periods slow operations and extend block production times. This can temporarily affect Bitcoin network security and transaction confirmation speeds.
What Is Mining Difficulty?
Bitcoin mining difficulty is a metric used to balance block production. It determines how easy or hard it is to find a new block.
The network aims to create a block roughly every 10 minutes. If miners find blocks too quickly, difficulty rises; if they are slow, difficulty decreases, keeping block times stable.
Difficulty depends on total network computing power. Adding more miners or stronger hardware makes blocks easier to find, prompting the network to increase difficulty.
In practice:
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Low difficulty allows miners to find blocks with less energy.
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High difficulty requires more energy and computing power, raising mining costs.
This mechanism ensures Bitcoin network security while affecting miner profitability.
Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks
The mining industry also faces geopolitical risks. The United States is investigating Bitmain, the world’s largest mining hardware manufacturer. The DHS is checking whether their machines could be accessed remotely for espionage.
Bitmain dominates 80% of the ASIC market used in proof-of-work cryptocurrencies. U.S. restrictions or sanctions could disrupt hardware supply, indirectly affecting hashprice and miner decisions.
The combination of rising difficulty in December, persistently low hashprice, and geopolitical risks highlights the critical importance of strategic operational decisions for Bitcoin miners.
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