Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin is almost perfectly repeating the 2022 bear market in the final quarter of 2025. Recent research shows BTC price movements exhibit an astonishingly high correlation with the past. Daily correlation has reached 80%, while monthly correlation has hit 98%.
This trend raises questions for investors about BTC expectations as the year-end approaches. November 2025 ranks among the weakest periods on record. Historical data suggests that a red November often leads to continued pressure in December, though the decline is usually milder.
Why BTC Price Disappointed Bulls
Bitcoin has fallen 36% from its all-time highs, shaking the confidence of bullish investors. Network economist Timothy Peterson noted on Twitter (X) that BTC’s second-half 2025 performance almost entirely mirrors 2022.
Commenting on November’s performance, Peterson wrote, “It feels bad because it is bad.” His words summarize why investors remain cautious amid short-term volatility.
Institutional Investors Return to Crypto
Meanwhile, rising risk appetite and institutional interest indicate potential year-end market recovery. According to Bloomberg and JPMorgan data, U.S. equity funds have received $900 billion in new capital since November 2024, with $450 billion added in the last five months alone.
By contrast, other asset classes have only seen $100 billion inflows. This demonstrates that equities have attracted more capital than all other asset classes combined.
Crypto ETFs Boost Investor Sentiment
Bitcoin and Ether ETFs indicate that the peak of institutional crypto sell-offs may be behind us. During Thanksgiving week, BTC ETFs recorded $220 million in inflows, while Ether ETFs added $312 million. These figures signal renewed investor interest in digital assets.
Experts suggest that BTC may not experience a true price rebound until Q1 2026. However, the growing appetite for risk assets and ETF inflows provide hope for a potential year-end “Santa rally.”
History Repeats, But Investors Should Be Prepared
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin mirrors the previous bear market trend. Weak performance in November may extend into December, albeit with a lighter decline. Institutional capital and ETF inflows could provide positive momentum, making preparation for short-term volatility crucial for investors.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.