Haciyev Reşit 
In the final quarter of 2025, Bitcoin lost 23% of its value, recording the second-worst fourth-quarter performance in its history. During this period, investors typically expect increasing momentum and strong price action toward year-end, making Bitcoin’s sharp decline a surprising development. As the leader of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin delivered a performance well below market expectations, pushing investors into a more cautious wait-and-see mode. This drop was particularly notable given that the fourth quarter has historically been a bullish period, prompting market participants to reassess their analyses.
Fourth-Quarter Shock for Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin’s 23% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 appears especially dramatic when compared with historical averages. Historical data show that the fourth quarter has closed with an average gain of 77%, with a median increase of 48%. This contrast highlights just how far Bitcoin’s performance fell below the norm.
During the same period, Ethereum was also among the cryptocurrencies that experienced sharp losses. Ethereum fell 28% in the final quarter, marking the worst fourth-quarter performance in its history. For Bitcoin, the worst fourth quarter on record was in 2018, when it lost 42% of its value. As a result, the final quarter of 2025 now stands out as the second-worst performance in history.
The Trump Effect: Did History Repeat Itself?
In 2018, when Bitcoin recorded its worst fourth-quarter performance, Donald Trump was serving as U.S. president. Interestingly, during the final quarter of 2025, a similar “Trump effect” was discussed in market circles. A few months earlier, Eric Trump had predicted in an interview with the New York Post that the fourth quarter would be “incredible”:
“The fourth quarter has historically always been the best quarter for cryptocurrencies. It’s usually the strongest period. An incredible time for crypto. And I think this year’s fourth quarter will also be incredible for many different reasons.”
However, as the fourth quarter came to an end, sharp declines across Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies proved Eric Trump’s prediction wrong. The situation sparked discussion on social media, with many X users tagging Trump and reminding him of his earlier statement.
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