Yeliz Akmaca 
Actually, the market picture looks somewhat complex, but this is reflected in Bitcoin slipping below the $70,000 barrier. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), prices have risen across nearly every category, from healthcare to airline tickets, clothing, and energy. 21Shares analysts note that the high CPI expected for March may have already been priced into crypto assets. Meanwhile, only five days remain until the March 17–18 Fed meeting, and Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel.
At this point, investors are wondering: Which direction will the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions push the market in the short term? The market seems to be pricing in possible scenarios already, but the outcomes are still unclear.
February CPI Data and Market Reaction
BLS data for February shows:
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Housing costs up 0.2%
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Food prices up 0.4%
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Energy costs up 0.6%
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Core CPI (excluding food and energy) up 0.2%
Stephen Coltman, macro head at 21Shares, said:
“Will the Fed ignore this temporary shock, or will it maintain a hawkish stance?”
Despite February CPI, crypto markets remained resilient. Total crypto market capitalization indicators, excluding Bitcoin, confirm this. BTC traded around $69,468 and ETH at $2,028.
What Does This Scenario Mean for Bitcoin?
Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, noted that Bitcoin is likely to remain within the $68,000–$74,000 range in the short term. However, the $75,000 resistance level is approaching, and surpassing it could signal a medium-term consolidation between $75,000 and $80,000.
Historical price data supports this scenario: after geopolitical shocks, BTC typically rebounds by 15% or more. This suggests potential price growth to the $77,000–$80,000 range, serving as a key indicator for investor expectations.
Oil Attacks and Stagflation Concerns
According to CME FedWatch, only 0.6% of investors expect a rate cut at the March 18 meeting. Following attacks on oil tankers in Iraqi waters, Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel. A short-lived relief rally faded, and Bitcoin slipped below $70,000.
On-chain data indicates sustained selling pressure due to stagflation fears triggered by geopolitical tensions and declining short-term rate cut expectations. High oil prices complicate ignoring stagflation scenarios and make rate cuts less likely.
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