Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin sideways, low-volume trading that defined the final weeks of 2025 has given way to a sharp upside move this week. As spot price surged toward the $98,000 area, reaching a two-month high, the shift became visible not only on charts but also in investor behavior. Data from Bybit and Block Scholes suggests the move was not random, but a sign of previously suppressed risk appetite returning to the market.
After spending nearly a month trapped between $85,000 and $95,000, Bitcoin broke above the range and pulled the broader altcoin market higher with it. What stood out, however, was not the price itself, but how derivatives markets responded to the breakout. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have since pushed Bitcoin back toward the $92,000 zone, reintroducing short-term pressure.
Perpetual Positions Are Building Again
As spot price broke higher, open interest in perpetual futures climbed sharply. Across nine major tokens tracked, total open interest moved back above $8 billion, returning to levels last seen when Bitcoin rallied toward $94,000 earlier this year.
The increase coincided with higher funding rates, particularly among altcoins. Rather than staying on the sidelines, parts of the market are positioning for further upside through leverage. A sharp rise in Bybit’s Risk Appetite Index reinforces this view. Momentum is forming not in spot markets, but within derivatives.
ETF Inflows Continue to Support Spot Markets
Positioning in derivatives is not happening in isolation. Spot demand has also improved. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded $660 million in net inflows year-to-date, with $760 million entering on January 13 alone — the strongest single-day inflow since October’s historic liquidation event.
Ethereum has followed a similar path. ETH spot ETFs purchased roughly $130 million worth of ether on the same day, while Solana and XRP ETFs posted multiple consecutive days of inflows. These flows suggest the recent price move is supported by capital, not just technical momentum.
Options Markets Turn Neutral, But Remain Fragile
Despite the sharp rally, options markets have shown little reaction in implied volatility. A month of rangebound trading had already pushed volatility expectations lower. While realized volatility briefly ticked up after the breakout, it has since stabilized around 38%.
More notable is the shift in short-dated volatility smiles. The bearish put premium that dominated earlier pricing has largely faded. Short-term BTC and ETH options now trade close to a neutral skew. This pattern, however, is not new. A similar shift occurred earlier in January when Bitcoin tested $94,000. Once that level failed to hold, downside protection quickly returned.
$95,000 Remains a Psychological Pivot
Derivatives markets appear willing to support higher prices, but only conditionally. The $94,000–$96,000 zone continues to act as a trigger point for sentiment shifts in options markets. Failure to hold above this range has repeatedly pushed traders back toward downside hedging.
It is also notable that options across different maturities are trading along similar curves. Normally, short-dated contracts react more aggressively. This time, the lack of differentiation points to a market that is cautious and undecided.
Geopolitical risks and macro uncertainty remain firmly on the table. As volatility continues to drift lower, the fragility of the recent rebound becomes more apparent. Derivatives are backing the move for now, but that support could reverse quickly if price stability fades.
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