Emre Yumlu 
A remarkable tightening is occurring on the supply side in the Bitcoin market. Recent data shows that while Bitcoin supply on exchanges is decreasing, large investors continue to accumulate. These developments indicate that in the event of increased demand, price movements could occur more rapidly.
Bitcoin Scarcity Index on the Rise
According to market data, the Bitcoin Scarcity Index on Binance has risen to approximately 5.10. This value represents the highest level seen since October 2025.
The Scarcity Index is used as an indicator that measures the balance between Bitcoin supply readily available for trading on exchanges and demand pressure. A high index level shows that the amount of Bitcoin ready for sale in the market has decreased compared to historical averages.
This situation typically signals a change in investor behavior. Many investors prefer to withdraw their Bitcoin to cold wallets or hold it long-term instead of keeping it on exchanges. In such an environment, any sudden increase in demand can lead to faster price movements due to limited liquidity in the market.
Bitcoin Reserves on Exchanges Are Declining
Another data point supporting the supply tightening is the total amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges. According to on-chain analyses, the total BTC amount on exchanges has fallen to approximately 2.7 million BTC. This figure stands out as one of the lowest levels seen since the end of 2020.
The decline in exchange reserves is considered an important signal indicating that investors are tending to hold their assets for longer periods.
Whale Wallets Reach Record Levels
Parallel to the supply tightening in the market, large investors’ Bitcoin accumulation is also increasing. According to current data, the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has reached 20,031, setting a new record. At current prices, a wallet holding 100 BTC is worth approximately $7.15 million.
In addition, approximately 954 thousand wallets hold between 1 and 100 BTC, while 57.6 million wallets have 1 BTC or less. This distribution reveals that Bitcoin ownership is concentrated among large investors while the small investor base remains quite broad.
Long-Term Investors Are Selling Less
Despite Bitcoin’s price having declined approximately 43% from its October peak, long-term investors appear to be acting more cautiously on the selling side than expected.
According to the data, long-term investors spent around 15.1 million BTC in the 2025 cycle. This figure is slightly below the 15.3 million BTC sold in the 2021 cycle. In previous market cycles, long-term investor spending was recorded at 7.3 million BTC and 13.6 million BTC respectively.
The structural changes in the market are also seen as an important factor influencing these figures. The increase in institutional investors, ETFs, and companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets is reshaping the definition of “long-term investor” over time.
Bitcoin Supply Dynamics Are Changing
While ETFs must hold a certain level of reserves to meet investor demand, some companies continue to view Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset. This situation may contribute to a more balanced selling pressure in the market compared to previous cycles.
Rising scarcity signals, whale accumulation, and limited selling by long-term investors indicate that Bitcoin supply is tightening further. However, whether this will create a strong upward movement in price will depend on how demand evolves in the coming period. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $71,526 amid the general market uptrend, gaining approximately 3% in the last 24 hours.
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