Yeliz Akmaca Bitcoin is trying to stabilize between $75,000 and $80,000 after weekend sell-offs. However, the rebound potential is limited as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) posts its strongest two-day gain in nine months.
Dollar Index Hits Nine-Month High in Two Days
According to TradingView, the DXY rose 1.5% in two days to 97.60, marking its strongest two-day gain in nine months. Analysts attribute the surge to expectations that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh will take a cautious approach to rate cuts and upcoming macroeconomic data.
ING analysts noted, “The dollar looks healthier. Last week’s sharp decline has been resolved since Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair.”
Bitcoin Stabilizes but Faces Headwinds
BTC stabilized between $75,000–$80,000 after falling below $75,000 from $85,000 over the weekend. Futures market dynamics could trigger a rebound above $80,000, but the rising DXY limits this potential.
A stronger dollar increases the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin and gold. Rising DXY typically signals downward pressure on BTC. Additionally, a strong dollar can tighten financial conditions, making money and credit more expensive and reducing risk appetite in global markets.
Kevin Warsh and U.S. Data Create Uncertainty
Markets closely watch Warsh’s policy approach. Previously seen as hawkish during his 2006–2011 Fed tenure, he is expected to be cautious on aggressive rate cuts compared to other candidates.
Upcoming U.S. employment data, particularly the nonfarm payroll report, will be key. Initially scheduled for February 6, the report was delayed due to the partial federal shutdown. Analysts expect 80,000 new jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate, potentially supporting dollar stabilization.
FX and macro strategists note that the DXY’s upward trend may continue. Matthew Ryan commented, “Warsh’s past hawkish image suggests he may act cautiously on rate cuts. The dollar is likely to remain strong in the short term.”
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